tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-79607662024-02-07T19:16:57.583-08:00Thirty Second ThoughtsLife is full of specialists, people who spend their careers studying one subject. I agree with Heinlein; specialization is for insects.
This blog will span a variety of subjects, as the mood fits. Expect posts on political, cultural, and technical aspects of modern and historical life. Enjoy!John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.comBlogger136125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-64125871750039437122020-12-31T23:21:00.002-08:002020-12-31T23:21:58.792-08:00I Had A DreamI had a weird dream the other morning. You know, after you've woken up earlier and then fall back asleep. I dreamed that it was January 21, and I was looking back and reflecting on the events of earlier in the month leading up to the inauguration and its aftermath. The Congress had voted on the electors after senators and representatives objected in their houses, and because of the chicanery in several states, the election was thrown into the House of Representatives, where each state gets one vote regardless of population. Because more state delegations have a majority of Republican representatives, the vote went to Trump and Pence.<p>
The resultant outrage led to huge demonstrations in pretty much every major city that started peacefully during the days but escalated into violence at night. This rioting and rampaging went on for almost two weeks and including on January 20th, Inauguration Day. In many cities, the violence jumped from property destruction to armed encounters between the different sides, and then, in Portland something happened and someone fired a shot, and the confrontation broke out into a firefight with large numbers of deaths on both sides. Finally, the governor of Oregon declared a state of emergency and the NG was sent in to restore order. The inauguration happened inside the Capital with limited attendance and there was a huge police and NG presence surrounding the Capital and large riotous crowds throughout downtown DC. The inauguration was quickly over... but the violence started to swell. The NG was out in force and quickly suppressed outbreaks of violence, but smoke and tear gas lingered as the evening came. Everyone knew it was going to get worse.<p>
That evening, the newly-sworn in President Trump asked for and received airtime to talk to the nation. The networks announced that the President would be appealing for calm and unity, and that he would make a special announcement, but although there was considerable speculation no one was really sure. The nation tuned in to watch. Trump appeared in the White House, in the Oval Office, and greeted the public with the typical "Good evening, my fellow Americans." He paused, and the camera view widened to show the Oval Office. Trump was not alone. VP Pence was there, as well as Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, Kevin McCarthy... and also Senators Mitt Romney, Josh Hawley, Joe Mancin, and former GA Democrat representative Vernon Jones, an African-American who had defied his party and endorsed Trump for the presidency and then was forced into resigning by the GA state Democrat Party for "not sharing our values." George W Bush and Bill Clinton were there as well... but not Obama. Chief Justice John Roberts was there as well, dressed in his black robe.<p>
Trump spoke briefly, thanked his supporters, and then shocked the nation by telling them that he was going to be resigning the presidency immediately, leaving Mike Pence as president. Trump quoted parts of MLK's famous "I've seen the Mountain Top" speech, telling America that better days are coming if we all come together, and that "I just want to do God's will. And He's allowed me to go up to the mountain. And I've looked over. And I've seen the Promised Land, the future, and it will be bright. We have the vaccine, we'll put the pandemic behind us, and America will be greater than ever. The fraudulent election has been fixed, yet just as we couldn't stand to see the presidency stolen, setting it right will require sacrifice from all of us, including me. I've set the stage, and while I will not be your president, I'm leaving you in good hands, and I'm doing so in a way that is meant to put the partisanship behind us and get past this. The people I leave behind have pledged to fix our election system so what happened never happens again, and America will be able to trust in the fairness of our elections. I understand Dr King, and as he said, I want you to know tonight, that we, as a people, will get to the Promised Land, America the Great. So I'm happy, tonight. I'm not worried about anything." And then he offered his resignation and it was accepted.<p>
VP Pence was then sworn in to be America's 46th president, his wife joining him as Melania Trump joined her husband, and the other presidents' wives joined them. Immediately afterward, he announced a full pardon for Trump and his family... and for the Bidens, and for the Clintons... saying that while he didn't presume that any of the recipients necessarily had done something illegal that would be shielded by a pardon, the time for using the legal system to attack political enemies was over, and though he knew no one would agree on all of the pardons he was granting, it was the only way to start from a clean slate and to put the past behind us. He also said that this would likely never happen again, but that unusual times called for unusual methods. He mused on how, perhaps, things might have been done differently if our leaders back in the fall of 1860 had been able to look ahead and see 600,000 dead Americans and the resultant bitterness leading to over a century of African-American oppression and disenfranchisement... that there had to have been a better way, a way to not kill off 3% of the population with civil war and leave the country divided in spirit leaving aftereffects that linger today. This was our chance to learn from our ancestors' mistakes instead of going down the same path, he said. And then he thanked Trump for having the courage to put the country before himself by resigning and sacrificing his presidency when he wasn't obligated to do so. He finished by asking the nation to put the country before self, to put aside the anger from the election and its outcome, to reject violence, and to join together to help make America the best version of itself. "I know, half of you didn't vote for me, but I need to be your president too, and that means I'll have to earn it by addressing your concerns. It's time for the American people, all of them to win, not some politician running for office. Help me, help your fellow Americans... let us all help each other."<p>
Then, he had McConnell and Pelosi come up to the podium with him, and he nominated Democrat Vernon Jones for the office of vice president. Both Leader Mitchell and Speaker Pelosi, and the minority leaders in both houses, pledged to support the nomination and have the vote by the end of the next day. The event ended with all of the leaders shaking hands and agreeing to work for the good of the country over the interests of their party, and asking everyone to do the same. The post-event commentators across all of the networks were floored.<p>
I had the news on as I sipped on my first cup of coffee, switching from the broadcast networks to CNN to Fox to see how the country was taking all of it in. The riots had stopped, the protests had stopped, and all of the reporters and commentators seemed shocked by what had happened. Several ordinary people were interviewed, and all of them expressed hope for the country and for the future. Even Joe Biden, while angry about how the election had been decided, stated that he agreed that Trump did the right thing by stepping down instead of serving a second term as president after such a widely disputed election, and that having a Democrat as VP would help to heal the country... and then he said that the country needed to put this behind us and move on.<p>
And then I woke fully, and realized that it was just a dream.John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-2837819592300590972020-11-08T00:53:00.003-08:002020-11-08T01:27:52.351-08:00How To Steal an Election, Hypothetically(?)
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQqWLaEPhtJjp3bEeqGhZ8CODWAgHvjVhpjZp3m4bouJnDMxW1O7ZxTPAnASxrywjiXNFj3tz-yn4K1AG4hzTEefut_iH0jVeBgPqI_DB3jbNbEh71opextSgWmu1H2NNOmAOKXQ/s792/voterfraud7border.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" width="400" data-original-height="479" data-original-width="792" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQqWLaEPhtJjp3bEeqGhZ8CODWAgHvjVhpjZp3m4bouJnDMxW1O7ZxTPAnASxrywjiXNFj3tz-yn4K1AG4hzTEefut_iH0jVeBgPqI_DB3jbNbEh71opextSgWmu1H2NNOmAOKXQ/s400/voterfraud7border.jpg"/></a></div><p><p>
<blockquote><i>“Those Who Cast The Votes Decide Nothing. Those Who Count The Votes, Decide Everything”</i> – Soviet Dictator Josef Stalin, Circa 1950<p><p></blockquote>
Picture this:<p><p>
It's in the fourth year of a wildly controversial presidential term. The current president is fiery, speaks bluntly and sometimes foolishly, has a record of success along with a record of repeatedly antagonizing his political opponents both in his party and among the opposition, and he is strongly disliked by many in the political ecosphere... reporters, analysts, pontificators... because he does not seek their approval or their advice. In fact, he often disregards and ridicules it, to the consternation of the so-called political establishment and to the delight of his base. His base is comprised of mostly lower and middle income White and minority voters who value independence, identify themselves as religious, and who generally support social and financial conservative values... small business owners, semi-skilled and skilled workers... as well as the majority of law enforcement and military members. He does not garner much support or respect among the professional class, those in academia, the tech industry, the financial sector, and especially from the media and entertainment industries. He is the butt of most late night comedy show hosts, and much if not most of their nightly routines center on finding something to ridicule the president about. The opposition party has tried and failed to remove him from office repeatedly, first by pushing a baseless investigation of him as a foreign agent based upon a known-false document prepared by the other presidential candidate during the last election cycle as if it were true, then by impeaching him on a party-line vote in the House on false, specious accusations of abuse of power and obstruction of justice only to see the impeachment fail on a party-line vote in the Senate. Neither the baseless collusion investigation or the baseless impeachment had wings once they became known as baseless, and thus have not been referred to by the opposition party against the president during his re-election campaign. The economy made a remarkable turnaround under this president's lead, reaching historic highs, then the nation and the world was hit by a pandemic caused by a virus from China that quickly spread world-wide with 10X the fatality rate of the common flu. The actions taken to combat this pandemic have significantly and negatively affected the world's economy; the nation's economy has also experienced a significant contraction due to the curtailing of economic activity as a preventative response to the pandemic.<p><p>
In this environment, the primary season was abbreviated and the opposition kept any one candidate from taking an insurmountable lead until April, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries" target="_blank">when all but the front-runner and the second-place candidate dropped out and endorsed the front-runner</a>, ensuring the second-place candidate who openly supported socialism would not win for the second election in a row. Thus, the front-runner's eventual ascension to the nomination was inevitable. Yet, there were problems. The nominee had not done well in primary debates; many questioned his mental capabilities due to his performance and his advanced age of 77. Yet, the consensus among political ecosphere was that the nominee was the candidate who would best appeal to the American public based on his projected 'likable' persona and his political experience. In order to appeal to the special interest groups that comprise the Party faithful, the African-American woman primary candidate was chosen for the VP position. The idea was to create a 'balanced' ticket that appealed to all of the party's constituencies... men, women, White, or People of Color... while also being deemed preferable to the two distasteful current office-holders who were both openly White, male, conservative, and Christian (thus, bigoted, racist and homophobic). But it wasn't enough. The party had lost the last election even though their candidate won the nationwide popular vote. Typical party constituencies... working-class, union members, even minority voters... could not be relied upon. What to do?<p><p>
What if... the current pandemic was used to justify <a href="https://www.publishedreporter.com/2020/11/06/op-ed-those-who-vote-decide-nothing-those-who-count-the-vote-decide-everything-josef-stalin/" target="_blank">the wholesale indiscriminate mailing out of ballots to all registered voters whether requested or not</a>? What if a subset of those ballets were duplicated, say, ballots for registered voters who had not voted in the past couple of elections, and stashed away? What if the election WERE held, the mail-in ballots plus day-of-voting ballots resulted in the party's candidate losing to the current office-holder? Well, we know who voted because we have their ballots... and thus we know who hasn't yet voted. We can bet that the vast majority of registered voters who didn't vote are represented in our stash... and we don't need them all. Just enough. So, we pause the voting, use our list of returned votes to exclude those from our stash, and take enough votes from our stash, mark them for the votes that matter in the time we have (mostly the presidential ballot, maybe in a few states throw in a senator because we're not worried about the House... no way we're losing that!) and throw them into the mix? What would that look like? Of course, we can't let observers see all this, so we block windows, we sequester them away so they can't look closely at piles of ballots we bring in from the stash or we can mix them in with ordinary ballets, we tell observers to go home because we're done counting... and when they go home we resume counting.<p><p>
It would look like the incumbent is leading with significant margins in several states, only to see that lead whittle away and then disappear, giving the election in these states to our candidate. It would look like the vote swinging in favor of our presidential candidate, but <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/7/5/20680124/state-legislatures-gerrymandering-redistricting" target="_blank">lower races on the ballot not changing so that state races don't change</a> and most Senate and House races don't change. Remember, we don't have to do this in every state, or even every precinct or county in every state... just enough precincts and counties in just enough states to push the election our way.<p><p>
I'm not saying this is what happened, I'm saying that it certainly looks like what happened. And, brought to us by <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democrats-push-back-against-voter-id-laws/" target="_blank">the party that vigorously opposes any form of establishing certainty that a registered voter cast the vote being counted</a>, denying full transparency and openness on the vote tabulation process, and pushing processes and practices that only enhance the capability for vote fraud. The same party that tried to tell us that the Russians changed the course of the 2016 election yet denies any such thing could possibly have happened in 2020. Or, that 150K+/- ballots suddenly appearing in the middle of the night, almost all for their candidate (which is statistically highly unlikely) is normal. The problem is, we don't know and we CAN'T know that the election was fair, that only legitimate votes were counted... because one party doesn't want us to know and has done what it could to ensure we don't know and will NEVER know. That is the problem. Joe Biden has declared himself as the winner and the media is supporting him, yet Joe and the media know that the election results are not finalized... but they are trying to create the impression that the election is over when it's not. Why?<p><p>
I would like to live in a country where, whether my candidate wins or loses, I have full and complete confidence in the integrity of the election system and processes. I cannot say that today, can you? THAT is the problem. The solution is simple: do in the US what we did to ensure fair and honest elections in Iraq. Make the first Tuesday in November a mandatory federal holiday (get rid of one of the other ones), require everyone to vote in person absent a valid reason for a mailed ballot, require voter ID (driver's license, passport) at the polls, put the voter's thumbprint on their ballot at the polls (have an ink pad in the booth, they thumbprint the ballot before leaving the booth and this is checked against the voter's thumbprint on record by the ballot-registering computer), provide voters a receipt for their ballot with their recorded votes, require ID for registration including a valid government ID (driver's license, passport), expire voter registrations every five years and require re-registration otherwise the voter is removed from the rolls to clean out the moved and dead voters. This would support automatic ballot confirmation, reduce the cost and effort of voting, <a href="https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2013/06/17/states-can-t-require-proof-of-citizenship-to-vote-supreme-court-says/" target="_blank">ensure that only qualified citizens voted</a>, and let us know who won the election by the end of the day. You know one party would be supporting this, while the other party would vigorously oppose it... and you know why, having seen what has happened during this election cycle. Because campaigns, platforms, positions, outreach... none of it matters if you control a voting process that is open to fraud.<p><p>John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-71490006357718960362012-12-02T21:52:00.001-08:002012-12-02T21:52:50.975-08:00Republicans, Let’s Go Off the Fiscal Cliff!<p>Although there's less than a month before the looming deadline  for both parties in Washington to make a deal that avoids the automatic tax hikes and spending cuts imposed by last year's debt ceiling crisis deal, known as the 'fiscal cliff,' there seems to be little hope. The Democrats' latest position calls for a $1.3 trillion spending increase that includes an additional $50 billion stimulus attempt to offset the impact of their proposed tax increase on earners making over $250K a year.  They also want the President to have unilateral authority to raise the debt ceiling without needing Congressional approval. In return, they promise to come to the table later to discuss spending cuts. That the Party of Stupid, AKA the Republicans, or at least some of them, are willing to bargain based upon this offering from the President and his legislative comrades-in-arms is clear evidence that those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat it. George H.W. Bush compromised with the Democrats in the Congress and agreed to raise taxes as part of a deal to bring the deficit under control back in 1991, and not only did the Democrats fail to cut spending as they agreed, they beat Bush over the head with the 'he lied about not raising taxes' meme... to the point of beating him out of the White House. Of course, Bush 41 had only to look back a few years to the Reagan 'deal' with Congressional Democrats, where once again future spending cuts for current tax increases was made by Republicans... and broken by Democrats. If Charles Schultz was a political cartoonist, Lucy would be the Democrats and Charlie Brown would be the Republicans... always falling for the same old trick.</p> <p>So, where do we go now? Many prominent Democrat-aligned pundits, folks like economist/columnist Paul Krugman, are urging President Obama and the Democrats to hold hands and go off the Fiscal Cliff. The argument is, that by doing so, the Democrats get everything they want; tax hikes that they don't have to own, and spending cuts that hit defense spending more than other discretionary and mandatory spending. Better yet, the Democrats are confident that the media and public opinion will paint the automatic tax hikes and spending cuts as the sole responsibility of the 'unreasonable and extremist' Congressional Republicans... and they are probably correct. Because the GOP doesn't want to be seen as the Party that took us 'over the cliff', they think, Democrats hold all of the cards. Force the Republicans to break, to give in on Democrat positions on taxes and spending, they think, and not only will Democrats get everything of substance they want, but they also get the benefit of shattering the Republican party as an effective counterveiling political force. Even if the Republicans hold out, they will eventually cave and vote to lower taxes on everyone except the so-called '1%'... and then the Democrats will get credit for lowering taxes on most Americans. Or so the thinking goes.</p> <p>I see it differently. What Democrat politicians and pundits, and many Republican pundits and politicians also, are ignoring is the impending debt ceiling, and how hitting it will force the Democrats' hands. The charade of federal spending without having the revenue stream to support it comes to an end once the government's ability to print money and swap it out for IOUs in the form of T-bills is the enabler of our reckless deficits, and when it can no longer occur the charade is over. This is why the Democrats want to usurp the authority to approve raises in the debt ceiling from Congress and hand it over to President Obama; holding fast on the debt ceiling is the nuclear weapon in terms of budget negotiations for the Republicans and the Democrats want them to unilaterally disarm.</p> <p>Instead, the Republicans should offer the Democrats a deal they shouldn't refuse: leave the tax rates alone while modifying tax policies as outlined below, and enact a financially-responsible budget as outlined below... or we can all go over the Fiscal Cliff and then no Debt Ceiling raises. That means no more deficit spending after February at the latest... and draconian cuts to spending to match tax revenues. Either way will get us back to fiscal solvency, but the Republican alternative will do it in a more gradual, less painful fashion. The Democrat alternative, as proposed, will only lead us further into debt.</p> <p>What sort of tax and spending proposals am I suggesting? The tax side is simple: let the super-wealthy (those making more than $5 million/year) pay the same rates on their capital gains as they would if it were ordinary income, exempt the super-wealthy from being able to avoid taxes by donating all or part of their wealth above $5 million to charitable trusts like the Gates Foundation, and eliminate federal tax deductions for secondary residences and state income taxes for everyone. Those changes would mostly affect the very wealthy, and they would raise over $3 trillion in the next decade... more than twice the amount that Obama's income tax rate hike would generate, without impacting the upper middle class family with two wage earners making low six-figure salaries. Reining in spending is equally simple: go back to the FY2007 budget, and increase it by the official government rate of inflation to 2012 levels. And then freeze it for two years before allowing a maximum increase to match the inflation rate, continuing to allow increases indexed to inflation every two years (just before the Congressional elections). As to how the money would be allotted among the different departments of the federal government, that is something that could initially be applied as per the current percentages and then renegotiated later in the year.</p> <p>Three simple choices: do nothing and let the Democrats deal with the insolvency in a few months, take the proposed Republican plan and ease our way back to solvency in the next few years with minimal economic impact, or keep on down the road the Democrats have led us to until the US implodes within a decade... making the worst-case Fiscal Cliff/Debt Ceiling consequences and the Great Depression pale in comparison. The Republicans, and the country, have a way out of this mess. Do we have the will?</p> John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-55874860839562609002012-03-30T02:06:00.001-07:002012-03-30T02:06:10.047-07:00Incompetence, Not Malice<p align="center"><em>“Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.” <br /></em>- Napoleon Bonaparte</quote></p> <p>Peggy Noonan had an <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303816504577312043447691520.html" target="_blank">interesting op-ed</a> in today’s Wall Street Journal, where she notes Obama’s increasingly apparent disdain for his political opponents, and attributes this to some sort of deviousness on his part. She goes on to attribute the Obama Administration’s dogged determination to ram through their agenda including the signature healthcare legislation facing oblivion at the hands of the Supreme Court to this deviousness, this dogged insistence on “…following an imaginary bunny that disappeared down a rabbit hole” as it were:</p> <blockquote>From the day Mr. Obama was sworn in, what was on the mind of the American people was financial calamity—unemployment, declining home values, foreclosures. These issues came within a context of some overarching questions: Can America survive its spending, its taxing, its regulating, is America over, can we turn it around? <p>That's what the American people were thinking about.</p> <p>But the new president wasn't thinking about that. All the books written about the creation of economic policy within his administration make clear the president and his aides didn't know it was so bad, didn't understand the depth of the crisis, didn't have a sense of how long it would last. They didn't have their mind on what the American people had their mind on.</p> <p>The president had his mind on health care. And, to be fair-minded, health care was part of the economic story. But only a part! And not the most urgent part. Not the most frightening, distressing, immediate part. Not the 'Is America over?' part.</p> <p>And so the relationship the president wanted never really knitted together. Health care was like the birth-control mandate: It came from his hermetically sealed inner circle, which operates with what seems an almost entirely abstract sense of America. They know Chicago, the machine, the ethnic realities. They know Democratic Party politics. They know the books they've read, largely written by people like them—bright, credentialed, intellectually cloistered. But there always seems a lack of lived experience among them, which is why they were so surprised by the town hall uprisings of August 2009 and the 2010 midterm elections.</p> </blockquote> <p>The truth of the matter is, the entire Democrat Party is devoid of common sense due to their enslavement to the Progressive ideology… and their <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=freddie%20mac%20corruption&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCYQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fbusiness%2Farchive%2F2011%2F10%2Fhouse-of-cronies-is-freddie-mac-incompetent-or-corrupt%2F246039%2F&ei=f3V1T8P3KarniAKHpLmnDg&usg=AFQjCNE6ZrbOAkrOFt5yN1HkTdSPQbisCA" target="_blank">corruption</a>.</p> <p>If you want to know when our economic crisis started, look no further back than January 2007, when the new Democrat majority took over in the House after the 2006 mid-term elections. One simple rule change, FASB 157, that instituted the mark-to-market rule for assets including real estate, caused the whole house of cards that was the mortgage securities market backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and that led to the housing boom that peaked in early 2007 caused by easy money due to relaxing credit standards caused by the 1996 Community Reinvestment Act. Senate and House Democrats blocked seventeen separate attempts by the Bush Administration to reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac… because it was a huge income generator for Democrats temporarily out of office (like Rahm Emmanuel) and for those running for office (like <a href="http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/09/update-fannie-mae-and-freddie.html" target="_blank">Chris Dodd, Barack Obama, and John Kerry</a>).</p> <p>As Obama’s new Chief of Staff, Rahm Emmanuel was just being honest when he said, “Never let a crisis go to waste.” Most Democrat politicians have no understanding of economics or finance, and the ones who do are blinded by their ideology. Nancy Pelosi couldn’t acknowledge that the Reagan tax cuts and relaxed regulations led to the largest economic boom in American history, because that would be tantamount to admitting supply-side economics was a sound theory… which it is. And <a href="http://fairmark.com/news/08041701-obama-capgain.htm" target="_blank">back in 2008 candidate Barack Obama announced his opposition to lower taxes even if the result was increased government revenues, in the interest of ‘fairness.’</a> For those Democrats who complain about the national debt increasing during Reagan’s two terms, it’s important to acknowledge two facts: Democrats controlled the House for his entire term (and that’s where budget bills originate), and the increased debt was due to the fact that while yearly tax revenues doubled over Reagan’s two terms despite the tax rate cuts, yearly spending increased by 300% during the same time period. If the Democrats had just kept spending to the rate of inflation the US would have been running a huge surplus in 1988.</p> <p>Similarly, in 2008 the Democrats were convinced that the economic crisis would be short-lived, that America would snap out of it, that the recovery would happen and it would be robust because it had always been so… and so they believed any actions on their part would have no impact and they might as well take advantage of the crisis to ram a dozen years’ worth of pent-up liberal spending through before the mid-terms. And so they did, and so they spent a trillion dollars on an ineffective ‘stimulus’ program that mostly lined the pockets of Democrat-aligned interest groups. They raised the yearly deficits from the last GOP budget’s $200 billion up to over $1.5 trillion, increasing the US national debt more in the first three years of the Obama Administration than in the entire eight years of the George W Bush Administration. Because our yearly deficit is so large, and has been so large, for several years, the Federal Reserve has resorted to printing up dollars and using them to finance our yearly deficits since 2009, hiding the fact that the United States is bankrupt by definition.</p> <p>Unfortunately for the Obama Administration, all of these financial shenanigans have hit the wall. There will be no more ‘quantitative easing’, or mass printing of currency, to further finance the debt, because the <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/news/178285-gop-lawmakers-warn-bernanke-against-qe-3-" target="_blank">GOP-controlled House has put Ben Bernanke, the Fed Chair, on notice</a>. There has been no federal budget since 2008, and no Democrat-controlled branch of Congress has passed a budget since then (on the contrary, the GOP-controlled House has passed a budget for the past two years, since regaining control in the 2010 mid-terms, but their budget bills have gone to die without an up-or-down vote in the Democrat-controlled Senate even though these budgets have received Democrat support in the House, unlike the abortive Obama-submitted budget proposals that failed to get any votes, Democrat or Republican, in the same timeframe). The debt ceiling increase negotiated by Obama and the House Republicans will be reached before the November elections… and there is no incentive any more for the Republicans to compromise.</p> <p>If you want to blame anything for this, don’t blame the non-existent ‘obstructionist Republicans’ or the ‘do-nothing Congress.’ Blame the ‘do-nothing Democrat-controlled Senate’ under Harry Reid. Blame the ‘elections have consequences', ‘we won’ President Obama. You see, it really isn’t malice. Obama, Reid, Pelosi, and their fellow Democrats don’t really want to ruin the country… it’s just that they don’t know what to do, their philosophies and ideologies clearly have not and will not provide solutions, and their strongly-held yet incorrect beliefs prevent them from doing what would actually work… because that would mean their beliefs are wrong.</p> <p>It’s incompetence. Sheer, unadulterated, hubristic, so-ignorant-they-can’t-even-see-it incompetence. The only way to fix it will be to remove the obstacles to the solution, Democrat control of the White House and Senate, via the next national election. And then the American people will again learn their once-a-generation lesson about not trusting Democrats with the keys to the government for another 25 years. Hopefully there’s enough left to salvage this train wreck, but be prepared to wait for several years for the recovery to happen.</p> John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-90709655401631927022012-01-22T00:25:00.001-08:002012-01-22T00:25:30.494-08:00Why Newt Won… and What It Means<p><a href="http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/A.kN7ECue4TTT1d5tZIVfA--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9aW5zZXQ7aD0zMTM7cT04NTt3PTUxMg--/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/Reuters/2012-01-20T014051Z_1636382128_LM2E81K04O301_RTRMADP_3_USA-CAMPAIGN-PERRY.JPG"><img title="" alt="(c) Reuters 2012, Fair Use Exemption" src="http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/A.kN7ECue4TTT1d5tZIVfA--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9aW5zZXQ7aD0zMTM7cT04NTt3PTUxMg--/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/Reuters/2012-01-20T014051Z_1636382128_LM2E81K04O301_RTRMADP_3_USA-CAMPAIGN-PERRY.JPG" /></a></p> <p>Newt Gingrich <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/south-carolina-primary-newt-gingrich-defeat-mitt-romney/story?id=15411865#.Txu4l28u15Z" target="_blank">handily won the GOP South Carolina primary earlier today</a>, with 41% of the vote to Romney’s 27%, followed by Santorum at 17% and Ron Paul at 13%. Gingrich’s late surge to victory was unthinkable even a week ago. How did he do it? How did he come from being a distant third to dominate the election, winning almost every county in the state? And what does this foretell for the rest of the primary campaign?</p> <p>The reason for Newt’s victory is simply this: he has convinced the TEA Party faction of the GOP, those voters who are deeply concerned about the steep trajectory of our national debt and deficit spending, who are frustrated with the ever-increasing intrusion of government in terms of laws and regulation and their effect on every facet of American life from what we eat and drink to the type of light bulb, automobile, or health insurance we can (or must) buy, that he is the candidate who understands and respects their concerns. More important, he will do something to alleviate those concerns.</p> <p>Newt has always been a policy wonk; someone who understands the intricacies of the interactions between government, industry, and the economy, and while voters respect him for his acumen that is not what has swung them over. After all, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are also smart fellows with considerable depth and breadth of knowledge about government and business. However, Newt does stand apart from the other candidates in his ability to marshall all of the facts and data to support his positions. That command of the facts gives Gingrich a confidence in the correctness of his answers that really comes across. Newt <em>believes</em> because he demonstrably <em>knows</em>. </p> <p>That confidence is the reason why Newt won; not only can he unabashedly state his positions, but he can do so in a logical and straightforward way that is as instructive to his audience as it is persuasive. Newt’s decades of teaching experience is a key part of his ability to effectively communicate his positions, ideas, and vision… and that is something no other GOP candidate has. In uncertain times leaders who are intelligent, persuasive, informed, and confident are compelling to voters.</p> <p>What happens next? <a href="http://thirtysecondthoughts.blogspot.com/2012/01/decisive-point.html" target="_blank">I believed</a> (and <em>still</em> do believe) that the SC primary outcome was a decisive inflection point for the GOP nomination battle. Here are my predictions: </p> <ul> <li><u><strong>Rick Santorum’s</strong></u> crushing defeats in New Hampshire and South Carolina effectively ended any chance he has for the nomination; barring a blow-up by Newt Gingrich before the Florida primary that allows Santorum to step up and assume the mantle of the anti-Rommey, he will go down to another resounding defeat in the Sunshine State and end his campaign shortly thereafter… and he will endorse Newt (you read it here first!). </li> <li><strong><u>Ron Paul</u></strong>, the irascible grandfather figure in the race, has been, is, and will be a non-entity, fading away before the convention even if he doesn’t drop out. Paul is right about many things, and especially right on the goals, but he is way off on the ways to accomplish his goal. Ron will not endorse any other candidate, before, during, or after the convention, but he also won’t run as a third-party candidate because doing so would end his son’s political career. </li> <li><strong><u>Mitt Romney</u></strong>, the all-but-inevitable candidate as late as last weekend has suddenly morphed into the candidate who has lost two out of the last three primaries. All of the air has gone out of his sails at exactly the moment Newt’s sails have been filled; the shift of momentum couldn’t have come at a worse time. Romney will never get the momentum back because he is lacking confidence in his positions -- the fundamental quality that voters are looking for -- and he no longer has the lock on electability. I expect Romney’s campaign and his Super PACs to go relentlessly after Gingrich, and I expect those efforts to look increasingly desperate and irrelevant. Romney will fight on until Super Tuesday, but it will all be over by the end of February, because the only candidate who will benefit from any Gingrich stumbles will be Santorum… and Gingrich isn’t going to stumble. </li> <li><strong><u>Newt Gingrich</u></strong> has gotten up from the second standing eight-count of his campaign, and he will not get knocked down again. He has taken everything his opponents and the media have thrown at him and has bounced back. The collapse of the ABC News efforts to use his wife’s allegations to torpedo him just before the South Carolina primary have insulated him from further attacks against his character based upon events in his marriages, and the Romney campaign’s attempts to use the politically-motivated Ethics Committee report against him will hurt Romney more than Gingrich. Newt will win in Florida and will end up getting the majority of delegates well before the convention. He will be the 2012 GOP Republican presidential candidate… and he will win convincingly against Barack Obama much as Reagan thrashed Jimmy Carter. </li> </ul> <p>So, in short Gingrich won because most GOP voters love what he says, how he says it, and believe he could beat Barack Obama in the presidential election… and there’s nothing that any other GOP candidate can do to change this.</p> <div style="padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: none; padding-top: 0px" id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:ea3121be-7864-42d6-b00e-4d69a97d29cd" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent">Technorati Tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Newt+Gingrich" rel="tag">Newt Gingrich</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/South+Carolina+primary" rel="tag">South Carolina primary</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Mitt+Romney" rel="tag">Mitt Romney</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Rick+Santorum" rel="tag">Rick Santorum</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Ron+Paul" rel="tag">Ron Paul</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/GOP+nomination" rel="tag">GOP nomination</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/GOP" rel="tag">GOP</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Republican" rel="tag">Republican</a></div> John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-69494124091414413472012-01-20T00:07:00.001-08:002012-01-22T00:27:43.795-08:00The Decisive Point Tonight’s GOP debate in South Carolina was <a href="http://cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/politics/2012/01/20/ac-analysts-post-debate-gingrich.cnn.html" target="_blank">a clear win for Newt Gingrich</a>, from the cringe-worthy opening question to the final statement. Considered all but dead a few weeks ago, Newt has reached the decisive point in the race to be the Republican nominee: if he wins this weekend’s Palmetto State primary he will most likely win the the nomination, if he loses his campaign is over and the Romney freight train will roll on to the convention. <p>So, will he or won’t he? My bet is yes<strong>, </strong>Gingrich <em>will</em> win. Why? Because Romney showed again tonight the weakness that will keep him off the presidential ballot. He cannot withstand the Left’s attacks on his positions because he does not have an ideological foundation for his positions. His head knows he is right but he doesn’t feel it in his heart; he lacks the courage of his convictions. Romney knows there’s nothing wrong with being very successful, but he really doesn’t have the heart to not just defend his success but to throw it in his attackers’ faces and taunt them with it. I believe this also goes hand-in-hand with his unsuccessful and tepid defense of Romneycare. Mitt isn’t stupid; he realizes that Romneycare was a mistake, but he’s put himself in a position where making that admission means he has to admit he was wrong, and he doesn’t have the courage to do it.</p> <p>Republican voters aren’t looking for a go-along-to-get-along candidate. They’re angry, fed up with the president and his incompetence, and genuinely frightened about the future of the country. They want a candidate who truly <em>believes</em> what he says, who can clearly defend positions to a hostile media, who will not apologize for holding conservative views. Rick Perry wasn’t articulate enough, Backmann and Santorum aren’t polished enough, Cain wasn’t knowledgeable enough, and Ron Paul comes across as impractical. So, that leaves Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, two men who represent the two conflicting spheres of Republicanism.</p> <p>Romney represents the pragmatic, moderate sphere… Republicans who have lots of conservative Democrat friends, who generally agree with the Democrat perspective on social mores, who aren’t ideological. In short, the <u>pragmatist </u>sphere, who believe that the problem with government is that it lacks effective management and rational decision-making. Gingrich represents the <u>ideological</u> sphere… Republicans who generally aren’t willing to compromise on principle, who vehemently disagree with their Democrat associates, who reject Democrat social mores. In short, the people who believe the problem with government is that the fundamental direction is wrong, that a radical course of action is needed and now, that half-measures or tweaks aren’t going to fix it, that the proper tool is a chainsaw rather than a scalpel, and that going back to first principles instead of gentle course correction is what is needed.</p> <p>I believe the massive support for the Tea Party movement among conservatives in general demonstrates the strong desire for a truly transformative president. Just as the disaster of Jimmy Carter led to Ronald Reagan, the debacle that is Obama drives the need for the antithesis… and Romney for all of his virtues and strengths is more like Reagan’s vice-president George H.W. Bush than Reagan. Republican voters have realized this; Mitt Romney has had them looking for another candidate from day 1 to coalesce around… to believe in.</p> <p>We’ll know on Sunday whether or not they believe in Newt.</p> <div style="padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: none; padding-top: 0px" id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:a716d7ea-37ca-4a98-99c0-e590466dea61" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent">Technorati Tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Newt+Gingrich" rel="tag">Newt Gingrich</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/South+Carolina+primary" rel="tag">South Carolina primary</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Mitt+Romney" rel="tag">Mitt Romney</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Rick+Santorum" rel="tag">Rick Santorum</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Ron+Paul" rel="tag">Ron Paul</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/GOP+nomination" rel="tag">GOP nomination</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/GOP" rel="tag">GOP</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Republican" rel="tag">Republican</a></div> John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-72246291265161595482011-10-05T17:45:00.001-07:002011-10-05T17:45:33.568-07:00Thoughts on the 2012 GOP Candidates…<p>This afternoon, Sarah Palin announced she would not run for president in 2012. Her ostensible reason given was that she could have more influence as an outsider. Here are my thoughts….</p> <p>First, Sarah Palin will never be president of the United States. This year was her best chance, but her power and influence came from the fact that she was seen as a central figure in GOP presidential politics having been the ‘08 VP nominee, and since the GOP of today doesn’t give second chances she took McCain’s place as one of inner circle of presumptive nominees. Four years later, she bows out of consideration, and the GOP is no more forgiving. Sarah will continue to have influence on the GOP field, and on the election, but from this moment it will be waning. She will probably spend another year or so in the public light, and then retire to Arizona with her family to enjoy the tens of millions she has made from her ‘fifteen minutes of fame,’ and I don’t begrudge her that reward; she has certainly paid the price for becoming a public figure and a lightning rod. </p> <p>The interesting question is, why? I have to think that there were just enough to the revelations from the McGinnis book to make a presidential run a disaster for Sarah and the GOP. Certainly the Democrats are the champions when it comes to the politics of personal destruction, and in an environment where the incumbent Democrat president cannot reasonably run on his record, I fully expect Obama and the Democrats to go thermonuclear on their scorched earth progrom. The Democrats have no other alternative than to trash their GOP opponent, to persuade the electorate that no matter how bad they think Obama is, the GOP alternative is worse… and they will relish in making it personal. Maybe Sarah and Glenn Rice had a one-night stand, and maybe they didn’t, and maybe this is a he-said/she-said, and maybe like Monica it’s really no one’s business and has no relevance as to her suitability for the presidency… but it won’t play that way. I can’t say that I blame Sarah for not wanting to go through another year of what will make what has already occurred seem like nothing. I will say, however, that she had a good chance of winning as she was definitely the anti-Obama.</p> <p>Chris Christie has also definitively announced that he won’t run in 2012, so we are left with the current slate of candidates. On the right we have Herman Cain and Michelle Bachmann, a little further towards the center we have Rick Perry, with Mitt Romney by his lonesome in the center, Jon Huntsman to his left, and then on the fringe we have Ron Paul. I’ve deliberately left out Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich; both are extremely well-qualified and both are bonafide conservatives, but in this political climate neither is electable… and that is a real pity. </p> <p>Mitt Romney is the polished, consummate professional in the race. His years of experience in closely-fought campaigns, winning and losing, plus his innate qualities as a businessman, have made him the best-performing of the candidates. He’s always ready with the perfect counter, he knows how to attack his opponents in a likable manner, and he has the appearance and demeanor of a leader. Of course, Romneycare, the Massachusetts universal healthcare approach that has proven to be suboptimal in Massachusetts and that served as partial inspiration for Obamacare, is the millstone around Romney’s neck; extremely unpopular with the constituencies Romney will need to win the nomination and the presidency. That issue combined with his occasional pandering and flip-flopping is why the GOP faithful want someone else to run that they can get behind. I believe he’d make a competent president in the way that George H.W. Bush made a competent president, but I don’t think he is the leader we need at this time.</p> <p>Michelle Bachmann showed real promise earlier this year at the debates but her recent statements on Perry’s HPV vaccination program have, I believe, knocked her out of serious consideration for the nomination. In my opinion Bachmann wasn’t ready to run this time, but she will be a powerful force in Republican politics for the future.</p> <p>Similarly, Jon Huntsman has a very good track record but he is seen as too liberal and a little too weird for the average GOP voter. Another person who would make a good president, but not an inspiring one.</p> <p>I don’t want to waste time on Ron Paul, the Libertarian-leaning candidate. He’s very right on many things, and very wrong on many other things… certainly a good advisor but in my opinion he would make a poor president because the world doesn’t work the way he believes it should… and won’t any time in the near future.</p> <p>Rick Perry came into the race as the Savior, the One who would save us from Romney. It hasn’t happened. No one gets to be a successful three-term governor by being stupid, but Perry often comes across that way just because he hasn’t taken the time to refine his messaging on his positions. While he has many good qualities that Republican voters are looking for, I think his positions on immigration, in-state tuition for illegals, vaccinations, etc., come across in the mold of a Nelson-Rockefeller-knows-what’s-good-for-you, and his declaration that people who disagreed with him on these subjects “didn’t have a heart” definitely hurt him with his target electorate. Perry is too authoritarian for my tastes; if I want to be lectured to I’ll vote for Obama.</p> <p>That leaves Herman Cain. A mathematician by training, a businessman, an accomplished turnaround specialist, unassuming, with a bias for action and a willingness to put it out there. Cain’s rise among the other candidates is almost a fortuitous accident. Cain would make a good president, and might turn out to be a great candidate, and he will be able to come right at Obama like no other GOP candidate possibly can. </p> <p>So, I think Cain will probably get the nomination as Romney and Perry tear each other up and take each other out and disgust the voters while doing so, and there is no other reasonable alternative. I’m looking forward to seeing him debate the One, because I think the American public is fed up with posturing and show over substance after four years of Obama. </p> John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-57168204371138215592011-06-18T19:35:00.001-07:002011-06-18T19:35:45.840-07:00My Addictions…<p>I often get into new hobbies and activities after reading about them. My problem is, I never seem to be able to get into anything half-heartedly. It’s all or nothing.</p> <p>A decade ago I happened to be browsing magazines in the local Barnes and Nobles, and ran across the ARRL’s <em>QST</em> with <a href="http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/pdf/0003069.pdf">an article about building your own high-performance amateur radio transceiver</a>.<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMRwTqhjogXDjXceC28NoKQvMxNPy4Wi3z-sovrqojY127MgpY09KhRhITd_7LGpbWoQLT5cXEqDpE_l-vhkz8p7zqs1R1HKf2Ws_KYC0CG8oopwYt9CgwYEXaL9PgvaIjB3z2vA/s1600-h/k2100d%25255B2%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="k2100d" border="0" alt="k2100d" align="left" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0crldvr7-puyUEA_TSEg9CBTD3YKMpTL5i5xeG42EgS2MrlAS2dT5ml_WUqHJYbz2zJPsGXBmxQeeMNxRgzHll9kWgW9JqrzRfdRUkSlRXV4JvdmS1Grff_nE9HMeDTstbE6lhA/?imgmax=800" width="244" height="192" /></a> To make a long story short, I bought the magazine, read the article, and then thought <em>How cool would it be to build a radio and then be able to talk around the world on it?</em> Within six months I had obtained my Amateur General license with operating privileges on the worldwide HF bands, and bought and built the <a href="http://www.elecraft.com/k2_page.htm">Elecraft K2 kit</a> featured in that magazine. A year later I had several ham radios for HF and VHF/UHF, and had talked from Seattle to Tanzania, Kamchatka, Argentina, and the South Pole on 5 watts of radio power. Think about that for a moment… with less electrical energy than a powerful flashlight and without any infrastructure (read: Internet) I was able to communicate around the world. That <u>is</u> pretty amazing, isn’t it?</p> <p>I won’t even go into my addiction for firearms that led me into opening what was, at the time, the state’s largest indoor shooting range and gun shop. Suffice it to say that I learned a very powerful lesson: never turn your avocation into your vocation. Why not? Because you spend all of your time working at what should be fun, and then when you have some leisure time you don’t want to spend it doing what you do all of the time. </p> <p>My latest addiction is motorcycles. It started innocently enough, after watching a fly fishing video:</p> <div style="padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; width: 448px; padding-right: 0px; display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding-top: 0px" id="scid:5737277B-5D6D-4f48-ABFC-DD9C333F4C5D:75e0438d-a97c-4a79-b551-2a924857930d" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent"><div id="1a1b389b-73c6-4f5d-a664-76d935285b88" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; display: inline;"><div><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlpVVKvrnu0" target="_new"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirBz4cb7xuIjVA57IgjeUSFAGcNEzfxoOHteHu5j0Ay0vTG77sG7KdOJV5wmQyQp2Q0zTt6yz2LiAGGuY41oUi_gnh00R5A3MIC_IomRWmVKpGRfmVbKPzDm92VvKsrhsgieUEeg/?imgmax=800" style="border-style: none" galleryimg="no" onload="var downlevelDiv = document.getElementById('1a1b389b-73c6-4f5d-a664-76d935285b88'); downlevelDiv.innerHTML = "<div><object width=\"448\" height=\"252\"><param name=\"movie\" value=\"http://www.youtube.com/v/FlpVVKvrnu0?hl=en&hd=1\"><\/param><embed src=\"http://www.youtube.com/v/FlpVVKvrnu0?hl=en&hd=1\" type=\"application/x-shockwave-flash\" width=\"448\" height=\"252\"><\/embed><\/object><\/div>";" alt=""></a></div></div><div style="width:448px;clear:both;font-size:.8em">Western Alpine Fly Fishing for Bass</div></div> <p>In the video, the fisherman gets into the remote lake by loading his gear onto a ‘80s-era Honda CT-110 motorcycle. While fly-fishing has also been a less intense addiction than most others for me, the motorcycle piqued my interest as a better way to get into remote areas than loading up a pack frame on my back and hiking a couple of miles from my truck (for those of you who don’t live out West, this is BIG country). So, I kept my eye open for a CT-90 (the original ‘70s-era version) or CT-110 at a reasonable price, and picked up a ‘70 CT-90 a few months later. </p> <p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7MdsZ_J5uTET9H2IOVywhwxJYJIuXMeRdIaKVvfr9M_Xu19iBOeQH5P9ZXeipbH1IqRZdkpG1k0exhU7tdkkG29SVT9JDD90_kjA1MOXr6gpizS6OtewLkjYkAYMWm7O9_iFV-Q/s1600-h/1970YellowLeftSide%25255B2%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: right; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="1970YellowLeftSide" border="0" alt="1970YellowLeftSide" align="right" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbw0oL-R3MivU7syp8oj_EAaBXmRYU8GW3kmoKEpILiW89RQQhGzOG83PeHbNtBxSEkhPq0qOL_5AAraRkPsEn5hc9lLxkdW9Z3D85cuzw6aW3boOjw90hvI0NvQveN4Wu3NE2Pg/?imgmax=800" width="244" height="184" /></a></p> <p>The CT-90 was an excellent motorcycle for a new rider. My previous experience had been as a teenager swapping out the use of my air rifle for an afternoon to a neighbor who had a CT-70; his parents were totally against guns, and mine didn’t want me to have anything to do with motorcycles, so we’d trade and each get to enjoy a little forbidden fruit. Later on, I rode a motorcycle just TWO times as a adult; once on a friend’s Suzuki 400 and another time on a co-worker’s Kawasaki 750 (the 750 was too big for me, and I almost put it down trying to get started… once I had sufficient speed up, it was easy to ride and turn, and I was able to successfully ride down to the end of the parking lot, turn it around and ride back to a stop). At any rate, the automatic clutch and bicycle-like brakes (a lever on each handlebar, plus a rear brake pedal on the right side) made it enough like a bicycle to make the CT-90 a good beginner’s bike. However, it’s low power and lack of a clutch, the attributes which made it good for beginners, became weaknesses as my interests progressed. (BTW, it’s for sale… a 1970 K2 with less than 1500 original miles in great condition.)</p> <p>My next bike was a <a href="http://powersports.honda.com/2009/crf230l.aspx">Honda CRF230L</a>, a dual-sport (street-legal but capable of off-road riding) that I picked because it was a Honda dual-sport.<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6H3PUd9b4Q9Gw1SWjLZall_9M174UICzg8WDTMHCJHrXPl1Jzof15Pg4t3T1j_zFStDI3Lh4Rs6yXwsHrfkuraLdB331zc5t2y2cfs8KYgOFio4VFRe-QLX57sMYWIpygqcL9ew/s1600-h/2009_CRF230L_145x90_Red_trans%25255B2%25255D.png"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="2009_CRF230L_145x90_Red_trans" border="0" alt="2009_CRF230L_145x90_Red_trans" align="left" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlfF23IpVhR-gB76JqHJnlgC9SDP-MyaElDWO3MaY19lvREj21u9IwLkeUhdp2BLR8Ce_nyBJidjLtumu6O-k1TDmj5tK_6LIWks-k3fENKEYvUUkQiSqycUioC_ZX8RxTT6bzTg/?imgmax=800" width="149" height="94" /></a> Here in Washington state, you cannot operate an unlicensed (not-street-legal) motorcycle on the unpaved forest roads in the state and national forests, and that is a large amount of the unpaved roads and trails in the state and throughout the West, so a street-legal bike is a necessity unless you want to be restricted to your own land or the few crowded designated ‘off-highway vehicle’ (OHV) areas. I chose the Honda because of Honda’s well-deserved bullet-proof mechanical reputation, and I chose this particular bike instead of something larger like Suzuki’s DRZ400 or the Honda, Suzuki, and Kawasaki 650 dual-sports because of it’s light weight and low saddle height. I’ve owned the bike since February and it’s been an enjoyable way to work on my riding skills. It’s also a good tool for spending time with my son; he has a Honda XR70 that I bought him for his 10th birthday which allows us to go trail riding together.</p> <p>Even though the CRF230L is a great motorcycle for what it is, my addiction made me want something more suitable for longer distances on paved roads. The 230L gets a little squirrelly at highway speeds with its knobbies, and the 223cc engine is not meant to be run at high RPMs for hours on end. I don’t mind throwing it in the back of my pickup and driving to trail heads, but what about riding around Mount Rainier, or around the Yakima River canyon for a day? Nope… I needed a road bike.</p> <p>After test-riding various Harley Sportster-based bikes, plus a few Yamahas, Kawasakis and Suzukis, I decided what I didn’t want: anything super-high performance, anything that made me lean forward, anything that made it easy to lift the front wheel off the ground with some injudicious use of the throttle and/or clutch, anything with a high saddle height, anything that made its horsepower well up in the RPM range. That pretty much ruled out most of the sport bikes, and a lot of the ‘adventure’ bikes like the V-Strom, the KLR650, and the big Beemers. I found that I liked everything about the Harleys except for the fact they were Harleys: a fine motorcycle but I definitely do not fit the demographic of the typical Harley rider. That was when I stumbled across an article about <a href="http://powersports.honda.com/street/crossover.aspx">Honda’s DN-01</a>, a concept bike that was Honda’s modern interpretation of a sports/cruiser combination that had been brought into production. Honda calls it a ‘crossover.’</p> <p>The <a href="http://www.motorcycle.com/manufacturer/2009-honda-dn01-review-quick-ride-88080.html">DN-01</a> is a different beast. Unlike sport bikes it has a fairly long wheelbase (62” versus the mid-50” range), is heavy (595 lbs versus mid-400 lb range), and has a low saddle (28” versus 31” or thereabouts for most street bikes). <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSb-3NluKAmC4YsHlOWEPS8kL6qvSDrGoWLR6eTYLL7NQ7xV-iJhCqK55sn1MKHUa90Bwc75p5sqURfYSIdk1XMjMCxhZN9Dl9jb633cNF1svzot2trUDtH8ypQW898Ivr7GtlpA/s1600-h/2009_Honda_DN-01_IMG_0216%25255B2%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="2009_Honda_DN-01_IMG_0216" border="0" alt="2009_Honda_DN-01_IMG_0216" align="left" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYM86Ii6Z_55nquDRkQGzMSGympSINs7Yynqelf2mmj7IZtUUIIWYPJYhu1ltfxIHo-hYYA841qoAlONMdghoYhOJ8QL0SOHznWN3Ihcjr7PYj5RnP1E2ZpaGQ0ue_yKJ7N52NoA/?imgmax=800" width="244" height="164" /></a>It also has a 680cc V-twin engine, a great design for a cruiser that pulls well at low revs, unlike the typical high-revving inline-4 crotch rocket engines. Perhaps the biggest difference: there’s no clutch. The DN-01 uses Honda’s HFT (Human-Friendly Transmission) hydraulic automatic transmission that is much more like a car’s transmission than the typical CVT found in motor scooters. However like a CVT the gear ranges are infinite. The combination of electronics and mechanical wizardry in the HFT allows for 100% lockup for maximum efficiency yet the transmission ratios can be continually adjusted to provide the best combination of engine RPM for a given speed and power demand. The result is an incredibly smooth riding experience… just twist it and go.</p> <p>I test-rode a DN-01 down in Oregon a month ago while on business, and decided to buy it after the dealer made me an offer I couldn’t refuse (about half the original MSRP). The DN-01 has sold well in Europe, but not so well here in the US, probably due to the fact that it was introduced during the middle of our Great Recession and at a fairly high factory MSRP. At any rate, the few that are left at dealerships are often priced very aggressively. A week ago I returned to Oregon on business, planning ahead by arranging a one-way car rental and bringing only soft luggage and a <a href="http://www.giantloopmoto.com/products/coyote-saddlebag">Giant Loop Coyote bag</a> to cart everything home in.</p> <p>While I was at the dealership I also picked up a new <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0019IDF0O/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=httpwwwthirty-20&linkCode=as2&camp=217145&creative=399373&creativeASIN=B0019IDF0O" target="_blank">Shoei Hornet</a> dual-sport helmet, as I knew my offroad helmet and goggles would be insufficient to multi-hour interstate trips. The Hornet is touted as a true dual-sport helmet, as it can be used on the street with a clear shield, or the shield can be easily removed and the rider can used goggles. However, the one drawback of the Hornet is that you must remove the visor before riding at high speeds, otherwise the wind resistance is so great that your head is pulled back. Don’t ask me how I know this! <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6-oKowIH_kCCsgIn_k-ZCzgaUtbFx1ISGZaHV4rps67l_IVfgjQ0D1CNCakhX0u1SHp1_FNGNu72ae4Q0Hic4kvxNvcKUPdPWCSSpGxwJ1CAHnwp63egrrlS61_rGu-EddL7LKA/s1600-h/IMG045%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: right; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="IMG045" border="0" alt="IMG045" align="right" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy6Psx5YUmSkuR7_2xiSaYHkQ4QnXkeqUGmLu8DzW9JtVM-h1n86tc63kulTswhZPvNx0nieh9uXELjnFRpZ3_tXZrwyOsB1w4nDkbqpMCKNX8rCoFRywXNV_7NWOuI6Bn6SpP-g/?imgmax=800" width="244" height="184" /></a>At any rate, I returned to the dealership before heading off to Seattle, removed the visor and stowed it in my computer backpack, bought a new <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000Y53UHQ/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=httpwwwthirty-http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000Y53UHQ/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=httpwwwthirty-20&linkCode=as2&camp=217145&creative=399373&creativeASIN=B000Y53UHQ" target="_blank">Joe Rocket Ballistic 7.0 jacket</a> as well to augment my inexpensive nylon mesh jacket, and after cramming the old jacket into the coyote bag, lashing the bag to the back of the DN-01, and then lashing my backpack on top of it, hit the road. Of course, by then it was almost 8 pm. No way to get home before dark, so I figured I’d head north and stop for the night when the twilight faded.</p> <p>After a quick discussion with a few folks who were hanging out at the shop, I decided against heading northwest on Oregon Hwy 30 to Rainier Oregon and then hopping over the Columbia River on the Longview Bridge. I’ve driven this route several times, and ridden it on a bicycle several times also as it is the last 50 miles of the Seattle-to-Portland double century ride, but riding west into the sun on a two-lane road didn’t seem like all that good of an idea. Instead, I hopped on Hwy 26 back east 10 miles to Portland, and then got on I-5 and headed north. </p> <p>At first I was very nervous, not having any experience riding on a controlled-access highway at high speed and on a new motorcycle, but that soon faded. Wind blast was an issue also; I was not used to the tremendous air resistance encountered at highway speeds,<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaBVkP4mgrqMfhjq_A4jffudQpEOJlmyl78-NxfPChQBe4862D-Bpvh5-A7rfV7IF0OfLCR6iyVPWbuWCb1XHlohaMe9jnT5KSqgYXz5Q1hAymdKIQ7kkjvAs2YS_acsoVacJpuw/s1600-h/IMG006%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: right; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="IMG006" border="0" alt="IMG006" align="right" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbnf7lThwYp22qKZiV8TlqHa3UkpBxdFNhGjUfa1KOujcM5HH2o_D2wiPaUndtTOMmi8c4E5CYf3nvSpmsxEQVU36lVQr2bt0gPmCxqsnAhKwM6Kd1XMoBqDuN4Hq1B_2jWkcTxw/?imgmax=800" width="244" height="184" /></a> and the occasional gusts caused by semis. And, as I crossed the I-5 bridge across Columbia River north of Portland, the 20 mph wind coming through the Gorge from the Pacific to the eastern Oregon deserts had me leaning to the left just to keep the bike going straight. The temperature dropped as the sun set and by the time I hit Woodland, about 25 miles north of Portland, I was starting to shiver, so I pulled into a McDonald’s for dinner, a Quarter Pounder with Cheese and a medium hot chocolate. It took me a while to warm up, even sitting inside a warm restaurant and drinking hot chocolate, so I decided to ride for another 10 or so miles, and then spend the night in Kelso.<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIXKFOw3brjzvKGeJeI5ClRKcSJm6HgniqkbM4lSsd2v3mypvl74TTx0FIFvlzmdjhd_qO1YoFhng6jOp2mJmahuSB2fbAfWPhwQR_Z20fAgCgPsMm45zY6nkWY8HSFcGHFeKjWA/s1600-h/IMG043%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: left; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="IMG043" border="0" alt="IMG043" align="left" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU3sBAx5O2XBHR6nm1DIhOdGzunLZ2UsBcCz_iuNabdLeB72TOn1grLRiSSZ8lIF6f_9JMB-yeO3Gj290dWbnksY6U_SQ3Zdf1q0KulPeugPDvAU8WBuCL5JD8w-5hpI7hEEIppQ/?imgmax=800" width="244" height="184" /></a> I made it to the Red Lion before it got completely dark, and only realized after I had taken my helmet off to check in how many small bugs were stuck to my visor!</p> <p>After a good night’s sleep, and a little sleeping in, I was a little worried about the remaining trip. Riding a motorcycle at highway speeds requires one’s full concentration, and is very fatiguing. Certainly this is something that can’t be done for several hundred miles without taking stops every hour or two… and I wanted to be in Seattle by 2:30 to make a phone call to the East Coast. <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi43pK-rTp_rtHHHX1HzkPdEOw9Bo1-X21CWLFaWPW3xhWcyxlSMuzamq4Jgswe60GWztYSrqVnJ6JxCmb0sL7oIHtm-1tFfM_4VfpaeJFPLau32u4HmBSr3LrnJiTH6lmM4RjFEA/s1600-h/IMG044%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img style="background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: right; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px" title="IMG044" border="0" alt="IMG044" align="right" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_crRMi8ezU3CRWOiNHwjXdfR1XvtCsAN6j0ip3ASPZqYR1Jovml6iErI5MVA9UJnzX6YKVujr7pwv5_bY4-hBcH_Pwm-re8FxP63htdrzWgZZ0QTUtxslK30APgXphNUjyu09QQ/?imgmax=800" width="244" height="184" /></a>I got everything packed up and headed north around 11 am, stopping to get gas and then deciding to eat just after noon in Centralia, about 100 miles and 2 hours from Seattle. Getting some food inside made me feel a lot more energetic and optimistic, so after taking a picture of myself in the window, and a picture of my loaded motorcycle, it was time to move on.</p> <p>The last part of my trip went without incident. By now I was used to how the bike handled, and the wind blast. Running at 75 mph, the bike really ate up the miles, and the warmer daytime temperature was very comfortable. I made it back to Bellevue and up to my office with a minute to spare.  As I rode the couple of miles to home on surface streets after the call, I already missed the exhilaration of leaning into the wind, and into the turns, of looking over my shoulder, signaling, and then accelerating into a lane change. Of being alone with my thoughts while being completely in the moment, of  not consciously thinking anymore about maneuvering and countersteering but just <em>doing</em>, of being one with the motorcycle. That is my latest addiction, and I think I’ll need another fix very soon.</p> John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-38151041876534697792010-01-20T18:41:00.001-08:002010-01-20T18:43:01.878-08:00Dear Nervous & Frustrated Liberal Pundit…*<p> </p> <p><a title="Massachusetts State Sen. Scott Brown celebrates with his family (AP - fair use)" href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/7038206/Barack-Obama-to-push-ahead-with-health-care-reform.html" target="_blank"><img style="display: block; float: none; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto" src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01562/BROWN2_1562309c.jpg" /></a> </p> <p>Dear Nervous & Frustrated Liberal Pundit,</p> <p>It’s up to you.</p> <p>Yesterday, after a year of angering the American people, the voters in perhaps the most Democrat-friendly state elected a conservative Republican to the Senate seat held by one Kennedy or another for more than a half-century.</p> <p>You’re depressed: Massachusetts was supposed to be a shoe-in, a rubber stamp, a mere formality with Paul Kirk keeping the chair warm until a more permanent Democrat could be installed.</p> <p>You’re angry. You’re wondering in disbelief how can the American people vote for a Republican after the 8 years of George W Bush? Have they forgotten already? In <em>Massachusetts?</em></p> <p>And let’s face it, you’re scared. <a href="http://www.tnr.com/blog/the-treatment/dear-nervous-house-democrat" target="_blank">Jonathan Cohn is right</a>. If Obama, Bill Clinton, and Vicki Kennedy can’t get a Democrat elected to Ted Kennedy’s seat, in <em>Massachusetts for God’s sake!</em> then no Democrat Senator or Representative is safe from defeat.</p> <p>Now you have a choice.</p> <p>You can continue the denial, the self-deception. You can blame Brown’s victory on the process, the stomach-turning sausage-making that has resulted in what was once called health care reform, is now spun as health <em>insurance </em>reform, but what we all know as Obamacare. After all, what’s in a name? That which we call Obamacare by any other name would still smell most foul.</p> <p>What about shelving the bill. The bickering and dickering, the horse-trading, backroom dealings, and outright bribery would stop… and these are among the things that have destroyed the Democrat brand in the eyes of the public. These are the things that Obama promised us he would end, and yet you, Liberal Pundit, are oblivious to the anger that has risen from Obama’s embracing of the corruption that he swore he would stop. Even CSPAN has had enough.</p> <p>Giving up on <em>this</em> health care bill will not damage Democrats in the polls. Honestly, what could damage them any more than they are already? Liberal Pundit, are you really listening to what the American people are saying? It won’t fix the problem. It costs too much. How are we going to pay for it? When are Obama and the Democrats in Congress going to actually <em>do something</em> about the economy, and that doesn’t mean passing Stimulus II, Son of Stimulus, “Targeted Investment” or whatever the<em> nom du jour</em> of the warmed-over bucket of spit that Democrats are bandying around.</p> <p>Liberal Pundit, the American people are willing to forgive incompetence in their leaders, to <em>Move On</em> if you will, as long as they think the leader won’t screw up like that again. After all, Bill Clinton won a second term after the ‘93 tax hikes, the ‘94 assault weapon ban, and the Brady Bill. Why not advise the Democrats to start over, to invite Republicans including Scott Brown to the table, to create a list of solutions that both Democrats and Republicans can agree on. Maybe it is only 80%, or 60%, or even 30%… but isn’t 30% of a loaf better than nothing? Especially when bipartisan support also means bipartisan ownership? I think it is, if you care for your country more than you care for your political party, if you’d rather do the right thing than be right, if you’re more interested in accomplishing something than stomping on your political opponents.</p> <p>So, Liberal Pundit, do <em>you</em> have those qualities? Can you urge the Democrats to be good Americans instead of just good Democrats? To walk the walk and work in a true spirit of bipartisanship to solve the country’s problems? I guess we’ll find out soon enough.</p> <p>______</p> <p>*A response to <a href="http://www.tnr.com/blog/the-treatment/dear-nervous-house-democrat" target="_blank">Jonathan Cohn’s letter earlier today</a></p> <div style="padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: none; padding-top: 0px" id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:81e33bf3-1d1e-4f50-bbbd-d42291963f64" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent">Technorati Tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Jonathan+Cohn" rel="tag">Jonathan Cohn</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/health+care" rel="tag">health care</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Obamacare" rel="tag">Obamacare</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Scott+Brown" rel="tag">Scott Brown</a></div> John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-22935010549225029942010-01-17T01:17:00.001-08:002010-01-17T01:28:15.513-08:00The End of The Beginning, or The Beginning of The End?<p><a href="http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2010/01/obamas-tora-bora.html">Andrew Sullivan posted recently</a> on how health care seems to be slipping away from the Democrats despite their unassailable supermajority control of Congress and the White House… a supermajority that possibly ends next week if the come-from-behind candidacy of Republican Scott Brown prevails over Mass AG Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate special election. </p> <blockquote>He had health insurance reform in his grasp and yet it may now be swiped away because they simply took too long to get it done.</blockquote> <p>The real story of the Massachusetts election, however, is what the outcome will mean in terms of the absolute ability of the Democrats to control Congress. If Coakley wins, it’s another year of one-party rule; the Republicans will continue to play the role of street urchins who can throw rocks at the passing train from behind the fence as it rumbles by but that’s it. If Brown triumphs, however, then the train comes to a screeching halt unless the boys are given some say as to where it’s going, and when. The Democrats will have to work with at least one Republican to get controversial legislation through.</p> <p>Sullivan argues:</p> <blockquote>[A vote for Brown is a vote to] embolden every enemy Obama has, from Netanyahu to Ailes. <p></p> <p>That’s the only reason to vote for Coakley on Tuesday.</p> <p>She’s a dreadful candidate, but this race is now a critical battle in the war to rescue the possibility of effective governance.</p> </blockquote> <p>Give me a break! If Martha Coakley is the one thing that will keep us from descending into chaos, then the battle is lost already and we’re doomed. Actually, the opposite is true. Removing the Democrat supermajority in the Senate is the <u>only</u> chance we have of stopping the bus from driving off of the cliff, of <u>restoring</u> effective governance in the form of ruling according to the wishes of the people.</p> <p>A Brown victory means that Democrats will no longer be able to damn the torpedoes of public opinion and go full speed ahead on their unpopular radical agenda. They’re going to have to play ball. If healthcare reform is important (and I think that it is, just not in the way the Democrats are proposing), then perhaps adopting a Democrat idea (government as insurer of last resort) along with a Republican idea (allow insurance companies to compete across state lines so that insurance pools can be much larger, spreading the risk around, or tort reform, or both) might actually lead to a better bill, not for the Democrats or Republicans but for the American people. If getting the economy going again is important (and <u>everyone</u> knows that it is), then perhaps we can forego another $800 billion mistake by passing a ‘targeted spending’ bill that is Stimulus II in all but name only. Perhaps we can try making the Bush tax cuts permanent and reducing the corporate and capital gains taxes while also freezing federal spending to 2007 levels. Was government spending really deficient back in 2007?</p> <p>Of course, if you’re fully invested in the Democrat agenda and believe the country’s finally headed in the right direction, but just not going fast enough, then Martha Coakley is probably your candidate and Andrew Sullivan probably reflects your thinking. Just recognize that most Americans disagree… and that the election of Scott Brown is the beginning of the end for Democrat control of the federal government as it likely presages a GOP landslide in the mid-term elections. The People are mad as hell and they’re not going to take it anymore.</p> <div style="padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: none; padding-top: 0px" id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:077b6a94-56ed-44e2-a1d4-d1890969ab3b" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent">Technorati Tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Scott+Brown" rel="tag">Scott Brown</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Martha+Coakley" rel="tag">Martha Coakley</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Andrew+Sullivan" rel="tag">Andrew Sullivan</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Massachusetts+Senate+race" rel="tag">Massachusetts Senate race</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Congress" rel="tag">Congress</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/supermajority" rel="tag">supermajority</a></div>John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-23593385315809533382010-01-13T00:24:00.001-08:002010-01-13T00:24:59.794-08:00Plan B<p>In the past few days, there’s been a <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-01-08/americans-oppose-initiatives-limiting-401-k-choices-ici-says.html">couple</a> of <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jan2010/pi2010018_130737.htm">stories</a> floating an idea by the Treasury Department to encourage people with 401(k) accounts to switch their investing out of securities (stocks, bonds, etc.) and into annuities:</p> <blockquote>The U.S. Treasury and Labor Departments will ask for public comment as soon as next week on ways to promote the conversion of 401(k) savings and Individual Retirement Accounts into annuities or other steady payment streams, according to Assistant Labor Secretary Phyllis C. Borzi and Deputy Assistant Treasury Secretary Mark Iwry, who are spearheading the effort.</blockquote> <p>The purported reason for this is to ensure that those who plan to depend on their 401(k)s for the bulk of their retirement income will have a sufficient income stream, with the excuse given that investors lost an average of 31% of the value of their 401(k) accounts between January 2008 and March 2009. What is hidden in the story is the fact that these accounts recovered half of that loss in the past nine months, and at the current rate of growth in the stock market the average 401(k) will be back at January 2008 levels in another nine months. So, where is the crisis? What is the real reason?</p> <p>I think the real reason is clear; the Obama Administration has an eye on all of that money and wants to grab it. Obviously, outright confiscation would result in an armed uprising by outraged Americans. However, what if the Congress pulled an <a href="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/5504137/Argentina_seizes_pension_funds_to_pay_debts_Whos_next/">Argentina</a> and changed the 401(k) laws to force conversions of all of the funds in 401(k)s to government-backed annuities… T-bills… or face a confiscatory tax rate? Yes, there’d be a court battle that would drag on for years, and that might or might not be won by taxpayers, but in the meantime the government has all of that money. And what would they do with it?</p> <p>Today, our budget deficits are funded by taking the surplus funds out of Social Security, and selling T-bills. The Social Security surplus is drying up as the number of retired recipients is approaching the number of working contributors. Buyers of our T-bills are similarly drying up; it’s a lot easier to sell a couple hundred billion dollars worth of T-bills each year than to sell more than a trillion dollars worth of T-bills each year… and as the economy falters and we buy less imported oil and Asian-manufactured goods the Arabs, Japanese, and Chinese have less dollars to buy our T-bills. More important, the Chinese, who are the largest purchasers of T-bills, have us over a barrel. They can use the threat of <em>not</em> buying our debt as a strategic lever against us. Certainly our economy would collapse if we were forced to either stop all deficit spending or print more than a trillion dollars to buy next year’s debt. As China’s domestic consumption grows, they need our markets less and less… and we’ve already funded much of their economic development. What if they decide to annex Taiwan, and they use the threat of cutting off purchasing our debt if we interfere? Will the Obama Administration risk economic collapse over Taiwan? I don’t know if the Chinese are willing to push us that far, but certainly we’re fools if we expect them to continue to buy our debt when our ability to repay that debt is becoming increasingly doubtful. So the Obama Administration and the Congressional Democrats have come up with an alternative, a Plan B, to take all of the money in our 401(k) accounts.</p> <p>A prudent nation would forego more government spending than it collects in taxes. Prudent and Congress are two words that are seldom if ever found in the same sentence, however. The current Congress seems hell-bent on spending every dime they can get their hands on, and borrowing even more money to spend once that is gone. The current Administration will not stop them. Changing the law to put another $3.6 trillion in the hands of the Congressional spendthrifts and postponing the hard decisions about government spending for another couple of elections is the easy way out, especially if enough people buy the spin about how this is somehow looking after their best interests. </p> <p>This is how a once-great country sinks into economic purgatory. This is how America, the strongest nation the world has ever known, with the largest economy and the highest standard of living, turns into a banana republic. Be afraid. Be very afraid. (<a href="http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/91677/">HT: Instapundit</a>)</p> <div style="padding-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; float: none; padding-top: 0px" id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:4f72096b-2ac8-4c8d-889a-c26a2a936fab" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent">Technorati Tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tags/economy" rel="tag">economy</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/China" rel="tag">China</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/deficit" rel="tag">deficit</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/debt" rel="tag">debt</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/401(k)" rel="tag">401(k)</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Obama" rel="tag">Obama</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Treasury" rel="tag">Treasury</a></div> John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-87185679981633983762010-01-05T22:58:00.001-08:002010-01-05T22:58:52.564-08:00Buddy, Can You Spare a Dime?<p>A letter from the RNC was in the mail tonight. Michael Steele is shaking the tree to help fund the RNC for the ‘10 campaign cycle. So what else is new?</p> <p>Well, for one thing the RNC’s historical fundraising advantage is missing this year. The Washington Times reports that <a href="http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/thegaggle/archive/2010/01/04/fundraising-woes-could-hold-back-the-gop-in-2010.aspx">the RNCC has barely enough money to fund a single Congressional race</a>, having raised $18 million less than the DNCC and with less than $2 million of available funds today versus over $15 million for the Democrats. <a href="http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=E1FE1B98-18FE-70B2-A8642C823D682BF9">Politico reports</a> that Congressional GOP incumbents have been reluctant to turn over campaign funds to the RNCC; Democrat GOP incumbents have given $2 million more out of their campaign war chests to the DNCC. But this is really a smokescreen; the real reason that the RNCC is running on fumes has to do with GOP voter disaffection. (<a href="http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/thegaggle/archive/2010/01/04/fundraising-woes-could-hold-back-the-gop-in-2010.aspx">HT: Newsweek</a>) Yet Republican Party leaders don’t seem to get it… or they don’t want to get it. </p> <p>For too long, each party has treated much of its base like bastard step-children. But evidence abounds that the conservative voters are fed up with politics as usual, with party bosses who cavalierly dismiss supporters’ concerns and frustrations with a wave of the hand while snickering “Where are they going to go?” Well, guess what? They went and started their own political organization: the TEA Party. They’ve decided to take back their country and take on both Democrats and Republicans. TEA Party supporters played a major role in the Republican off-year election victories, but perhaps their biggest statement was made in the NY-23 Congressional election that was won by a Democrat after the GOP establishment insisted on supporting Dede Scozzafava, a liberal ‘RINO’, over a conservative candidate (Doug Hoffman) for pragmatic reasons (GOP elites didn’t think a conservative Republican could win in that district and wanted a liberal Republican, assuming that all of the Republicans and many Democrats would vote for her). The RNCC spent over $1 million to support Scozzafava, yet Hoffman’s endorsement by Sarah Palin brought the nation’s attention to his candidacy, a significant amount of donations from out-of-state TEA Party supporters, and overwhelming support in the district. Realizing she had no chance of winning, Scozzafava dropped out of the race… and then endorsed the Democrat candidate who went on to win. The real loser in this election wasn’t Doug Hoffman, who will run again in 2010 and who will most likely win, it was the GOP leadership. </p> <p>So, “where are they going to go?” Well, as a volunteer who spent his own time and money to leave Washington state and go to Florida to help campaign for McCain last November, and as someone who believes the GOP leadership hasn’t learned its lesson from the past two national election cycles, I can tell you where I’m going to go… and it’s not to a GOP fund-raiser. I gave money to Doug Hoffman, and I’ve given to Joe Wilson, and I’ve given to Scott Brown… and I’ve given to them directly instead of donating to the RNC and letting them pick and choose. Millions of disaffected GOP voters are doing the same thing, bypassing the party and supporting only those candidates who agree with them.</p> <p>The GOP leadership is in grave danger of losing their conservative base, and more ‘Scozzafavas’ (supporting establishment RINO Republicans) will only hasten the process. I personally have no intention of giving to the RNC for a while; if my campaign contributions are going to be thrown down a rathole then I’d just as soon pick the rathole.</p> <p>In 1994, Newt Gingrich successfully ended 40 years of Democrat control in the House by understanding why the majority of Americans were angry at the Democrat-controlled Congress, and then getting GOP candidates (incumbents and challengers) to pledge to address those issue if voters supported them. The majority of voters agreed with the agenda and believed in the GOP candidates, and history was made. Sixteen years later, and four years after losing control of the Congress, today’s GOP leadership seemingly has no real clue as to why many of the folks who voted the GOP out are now gathering by the millions… and no clue as to how to obtain TEA Party support. Voter disaffection with the incumbent Democrats is nearly at an all-time high (and it is only going to get higher as the economy fails to recover), yet the Palins and Bachmanns who are inspiring the TEA Party supporters have little influence in the GOP. </p> <p>Mr. Steele, with all due respect, you and the rest of the GOP leadership need to get a clue. And you need to get it quick. Otherwise, 2010 will be historical only in that future pundits and historians will wonder how the GOP could have blown such a great opportunity. Here’s a hint: listen to the TEA Party protests and come up with objective, measurable solutions for America’s problems and not just less of what the Democrats are promising. And tell us the truth! We can take it.</p> John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-66657940312936367572009-07-09T01:07:00.000-07:002009-07-09T01:52:04.374-07:00The World Leaders' Guide to Dressing One's Children at International Summits... or, what not to wear<center> <img src="http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/07/08/article-1198393-05A4CFB5000005DC-686_468x676.jpg" width="468" height="676" alt="Malia - © London Daily Mail, displayed under fair use"/></center><br /><br />The <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1198393/Miss-Obamas-peacenik-T-shirt-sends-message-G8-leaders.html#comments">London Daily Mail has an article on Malia's attire</a> at the G-8 Summit, specifically on the political nature of the peace symbol displayed prominently on Obama's eldest daughter's shirt.<br /><br />Perhaps the Obamas see this differently than I and many others do. In their minds, a peace sign is non-confrontational, and besides no one in their right mind can be against peace. Maybe they <i>do</i> understand the significance of the symbol and this is someone's way (Michelle?) of making a point. Or could it be that this is a cheap way to score points with the disaffected Left, the folks who are angry with Obama for <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/first100days/2009/02/27/obamas-iraq-withdrawal-plan-disappoints-anti-war-activists/">not pulling the plug on Iraq</a>, <a href="http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/05/20/obama_takes_a_hit_on_guantanamo/">Gitmo</a>, <a href="http://www.washblade.com/2009/6-19/news/national/14735.cfm">DOMA</a>, etc. Yes, this is the cynical view.<br /><br />Look at the bright side. Maybe Obama's daughters can hang out with fellow Democrat presidential offspring Amy Carter, famous for the <a href="http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1298&dat=19801106&id=Re0QAAAAIBAJ&sjid=J4wDAAAAIBAJ&pg=3768,4013813">shoutout she received from Dad </a>during one of the Carter-Reagan debates for her <a href="http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/debates/history/1980/index.shtml">role as one of her fathers's sought-after advisors on nuclear weapons policy</a>. Sure, then Obama can be like Jimmy Carter, following Carter's example, consulting with the Obama girls just like Jimmy. Because we all remember what a smashing job HE did on <a href="http://www.google.com/search?q=Jimmy+Carter+foreign+policy+failure&rls=com.microsoft:en-us&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&startIndex=&startPage=1&rlz=">foreign policy</a>, <a href="http://www.google.com/search?q=Jimmy+Carter+economic+policy+failure&rls=com.microsoft:en-us&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&startIndex=&startPage=1&rlz=">economic policy</a>, etc.<br /><br /><i>Oh, wait...</i><br /><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Malia+Obama" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Obama+peace" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/G8" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Obama+children" rel="tag"></a>John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-80282253227423494792009-06-13T14:03:00.001-07:002009-06-13T15:33:08.569-07:00The Definitive Electronic Reader: Amazon gets it right with the new Kindle DX<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnWzumOUIfPmzjV4AAzvEoO6dRy-2y0mk-ipr4pXls8TrWF8knAdGrI16dhb-wT-RCknUHgRR_kSx84cIDsx_W4_CJXRpdpP1Skd-0XmoUsdiAVRjdI64i6T0LtOG_r3_z3xQvaQ/s1600-h/DSCF1642+sm.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 267px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnWzumOUIfPmzjV4AAzvEoO6dRy-2y0mk-ipr4pXls8TrWF8knAdGrI16dhb-wT-RCknUHgRR_kSx84cIDsx_W4_CJXRpdpP1Skd-0XmoUsdiAVRjdI64i6T0LtOG_r3_z3xQvaQ/s400/DSCF1642+sm.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5346932941948083234" /></a><center><i>The new Kindle DX alongside an original Kindle</i></center><p><br />Although I was an early adopter of the <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000FI73MA?ie=UTF8&tag=httpwwwthirty-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=B000FI73MA">original Kindle</a><img src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=httpwwwthirty-20&l=as2&o=1&a=B000FI73MA" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" />, I've eagerly anticipated Amazon's <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0015TCML0?ie=UTF8&tag=httpwwwthirty-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=B0015TCML0">Kindle DX</a><img src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=httpwwwthirty-20&l=as2&o=1&a=B0015TCML0" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" />. The original device was, and is, well-suited for light reading of non-serious material, but its small screen size and lack of PDF support made it mostly a recreational device. I quickly realized that any serious technical book still worked better in physical form. That, combined with the original Kindle's inability to handle PDFs (Adobe Portable Document-format files, a rendering of a document's printed image via Adobe Acrobat and other converters) in a usable form (the conversion left a lot to be desired), made me look at other e-readers, particularly the <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B001LUJIBK?ie=UTF8&tag=httpwwwthirty-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=B001LUJIBK">iLiad iRex Digital Reader 1000-series</a><img src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=httpwwwthirty-20&l=as2&o=1&a=B001LUJIBK" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" />. Unfortunately, the iRex 1000 ereader, at above $1000, was still a work-in-progress, with serious deficiencies in terms of functionality and reliability, and I didn't want to be an alpha tester of a device that might never <i>be</i> finished. Amazon's announcement of the large-format Kindle DX with native PDF support seemed like the answer... so I plunked down the money for a DX and the Amazon case and got on the waiting list.<p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_8fqBweGrWt6ReqHdd86OG_9EZ3VWEpmHGMFDfEwwK0xf-zdiJklvY_E8nGfuYd7oBvOjV7nOykZ7Y5mNMeRb2Zi3dJs06lGam5eVvb-jRyCmz_sNWoRTE9GlU-Aqo8ITneHkJA/s1600-h/KindleDX-PDF.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 267px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_8fqBweGrWt6ReqHdd86OG_9EZ3VWEpmHGMFDfEwwK0xf-zdiJklvY_E8nGfuYd7oBvOjV7nOykZ7Y5mNMeRb2Zi3dJs06lGam5eVvb-jRyCmz_sNWoRTE9GlU-Aqo8ITneHkJA/s400/KindleDX-PDF.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5346940858297285778" /></a>Why would you want native PDF support? The small Kindles support PDF files via translation; you send a PDF document to Amazon and they convert it to the Kindle's AZW format and send it back to you, either to your desktop email account (free) or directly to your Kindle ($0.10 per document). However, if your document is anything more than simple text, formatting and imagery are mangled. What you get is readable but not nearly as readable as a Kindle document that was specifically prepared for the device. This is an inherent restriction caused by the difference between a document file structure that is meant to preserve formatting (PDF) and one that is meant to allow for text flow despite screen or font size concerns (AZW). The result was that you couldn't practically use either the original or 2nd gen Kindles for reading even reasonably complex PDF documents. Having an integral native PDF reader on the new Kindle DX <i>(as seen to the left)</i> solves this problem and opens up a HUGE world of documents to the Kindle owner.<p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRxpNsQdtNZ-njSBT_6L_J8NBCDohgZ65Pj2206P1DMZdTxBHJL5SDmWK5lK1oMP2S8yxF9gkSma8IU6CUJq72NpqUaoHQuSaXtIdHO9hXs6t07DJ56mVpwrvVbNp8vtI1xCgflw/s1600-h/KindleO-PDF.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 267px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRxpNsQdtNZ-njSBT_6L_J8NBCDohgZ65Pj2206P1DMZdTxBHJL5SDmWK5lK1oMP2S8yxF9gkSma8IU6CUJq72NpqUaoHQuSaXtIdHO9hXs6t07DJ56mVpwrvVbNp8vtI1xCgflw/s400/KindleO-PDF.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5346941221694862210" /></a>I've had the Kindle DX for about a day now, and it's everything I was looking for. PDFs render beautifully, not like they did on the original <i>(the same PDF on the original Kindle, at right)</i> and Kindle AZW documents render even better than they did on the original Kindle due to the larger screen size and 16-tone grey scale capability. The large screen really elevates the new DX into something more than a convenient device for light reading. The Kindle DX shows the true utility of an electronic reader for the first time. It's what the Kindle should have been from the start.<br /><br />What has improved? Performance is better, particularly the screen refresh rate. The new button design means not turning pages accidentally anymore (although I wish they'd kept buttons on both sides of the device for us left-handers). I don't like not having an SD card slot on the device, nor do I like not being able to change the battery without sending the device back to Amazon. Being able to turn the Whispernet modem on and off via software (menu item) is scads better than having to move a switch. The web browser's 'desktop' mode makes the browser very usable, especially when combined with the rotation feature. Speaking of rotation, the ability to rotate the device and view documents in either landscape or portrait mode is KILLER. Text-to-speech works well, but I have yet to try it for actually 'reading' (listening to) a document while doing something else, e.g., driving, to see if it is really useful or just a checklist feature. The Amazon cover (extra charge) is WAY above the original Kindle's flimsy cover; it actually holds the device securely, protects the screen, yet is easy to open (beware of the magnetic latch around external hard drives or near the bottom of your laptop). <br /><br />Okay, so now I have two Kindles. My wife asked me why I need two, a good question. My answer is, the small Kindles are great for light reading... the latest fiction novel, public-domain classics, etc., but they're useless for PDFs or more serious reading such as technical books because the screen size is too small and images, formulas, etc., don't display well. The Kindle DX is great for any type of reading and shines with PDFs and more serious books, yet it is considerably heavier than the original Kindle (I'd say twice as heavy, if not more so) and not as convenient to stuff in a carry-on bag. I've already moved all of the technical books I own over to the DX, as well as many PDF documents. I had decided to not buy any serious books for my Kindle, using it only for light reading... but the new Kindle DX has changed my mind. The experience of reading a technical book is as good or better than the physical book, and that is something that could not be said about the smaller Kindles.<br /><br />If I had to own just one electronic reading device, the choice is obvious: the Kindle DX. Amazon has gotten it right; the Kindle DX finally fulfills the 'book' paradigm in an electronic device.<br /><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Kindle+DX" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Kindle" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Amazon+Kindle" rel="tag"></a>John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-23440899901780368842009-05-18T16:05:00.000-07:002009-05-18T16:29:37.091-07:00"We Can't Manage The Federal Budget, So Let's Run The Automakers!"I don't get why <a href="http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/78751/">Glenn Reynolds is picking on Chrysler</a>, when the real villain/moron in the story is the Obama Administration. I understand Chrysler's attempts to stimulate sales on vehicles sitting at dealerships, including the soon-to-be-ex-dealers; Chrysler doesn't want to take the vehicles back. To be honest, the additional $1k is making me seriously consider buying a new Dodge Ram half-ton. I've owned two Dodge Dakota Quad Cabs ('00 and '04) and have found them to be well-designed and built, and trouble-free. Ford and GM also make great trucks, but I don't hesitate to recommend Dodge and to buy another one. However, if Chrysler goes under (fails to emerge from bankruptcy) then the value of any Chrysler product including a brand-new vehicle will drop significantly, and that is perhaps the main reason why I hesitate to buy. The blame for this will lie not with Chrysler, but with the Obama Administration and their botched handling of the bankruptcy. More specifically, the responsibility will be Obama's. <br /><br />Although Chrysler's problems are not new, all of the automakers have suffered from the recession. People who are worried about whether or not they’ll have a job aren’t going to go out and buy a new car. What differentiates Chrysler is the FUD that has been spread by the Obama Administration and it's hardball approach to the Chrysler bankruptcy. Chrysler's sales have slumped more than the others due to concerns about the automaker's future viability. Throwing money, or Fiat, at the problem isn't going to fix it. Instead, the fix is to give Chrysler the same labor environment that successful US automakers (Toyota, Honda, BMW, VW) have, by breaking the UAW's stranglehold on the company. Of course, this one critical fundamental step is the one that Obama won't do due to his obligations to the unions.<br /><br />What I don’t understand is, <a href="http://www.bostonherald.com/business/automotive/view.bg?articleid=1172402&srvc=business&position=recent">why is Chrysler shedding dealers</a>? There is no ownership involved; dealers are independent businesses with a contractual agreement to buy Chrysler products and then support them. Automakers need dealers, because consumers won’t buy a car without a dealer to back the car up. Chrysler evidently thinks that their sales won't drop if they close these dealers. What they fail to understand is that the marginal cost of additional dealers is minimal. Dealers are truly the automakers' customers, so who cares if they buy 100 cars or 10,000? Each additional car sale is one that might not happen without that dealer.The economy will rebound, and it will be a lot harder to get new dealers than to keep the existing ones. <br /><br />Can someone tell me how, if the desire was to kill Chrysler instead of saving it, would the Obama Administration's actions concerning Chrysler be any different?<br /><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Chrysler" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Obama+Chrysler" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Chrysler+dealers" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Instapundit" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Glenn+Reynolds" rel="tag"></a>John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-25145241538904250092009-05-05T20:37:00.000-07:002009-05-05T21:45:27.113-07:00What I've Been Discussing...I found a neat website that can parse through text and determine the relative frequency and contextual importance of the various terms it encounters. The website is <a href="http://www.wordle.net">Wordle</a>, and I fed it my RSS feed from this blog to produce the following <a href="http://www.wordle.net/gallery/wrdl/815314/ThirtySecondThoughts">'wordle'</a>...<br /><br /><center><a href="http://www.wordle.net/gallery/wrdl/815314/ThirtySecondThoughts" title="Wordle: ThirtySecondThoughts"><img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3584/3506715754_b005ca7a0f_o.png" alt="Wordle: ThirtySecondThoughts" style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;"></a></center><br />Pretty neat....<br /><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/wordle" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Thirty+Second+Thoughts" rel="tag"></a>John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-88837061326720001622009-04-27T12:23:00.000-07:002010-01-13T00:34:24.549-08:00An Unfailingly Reliable Indicator<center><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/a/ae/Jimmycarter_rabbit.jpg/325px-"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 325px; height: 104px;" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ae/Jimmycarter_rabbit.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></a><i>Then-President Jimmy Carter defending himself against a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimmy_Carter_rabbit_incident">crazy rabbit</a> (upper right)</i></center><br /><br />I see former president Jimmy Carter has an <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/27/opinion/27Carter.html?_r=1&ref=opinion">op-ed in today's New York Times</a> calling for the re-enactment of the 1994 'Assault Weapon' ban, a useless symbolic gesture and perhaps the single achievement of the Democrat House that allowed the GOP to take that chamber back after a half-century (certainly <a href="http://www.nrawinningteam.com/0012/moretodo.html">Bill Clinton believed so</a>).<br /><br />What I don't understand is why anyone is pushing for this law, a law that had absolutely no effect on crime, that was never successfully prosecuted, and that is almost certainly unconstitutional in this post-<i><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/District_of_Columbia_v._Heller">Heller</a></i> world. One of Carter's claims is that American-made and legally purchased 'assault weapons' are being smuggled into Mexico and used by the cartels in their war against each other and the Mexican government... <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/04/02/myth-percent-guns-mexico-fraction-number-claimed/">a claim which has been proven false</a> as the cartels' main source of weapons is from other Central American countries like Panama, where <u>real</u> full-auto assault weapons (not the semi-auto lookalikes we can legally buy here), rocket launchers, grenades, etc., are available. Actually, I do understand. It's not about the problem in Mexico, it's about not trusting the American people.<br /><br />Carter talks about his hunting guns, and then derides the NRA for <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/27/opinion/27Carter.html?_r=1&ref=opinion">"defending criminals' access to assault weapons and use of ammunition that can penetrate protective clothing worn by police officers."</a> What he is either too stupid, or too dishonest to mention is that <u>any</u> centerfire deer rifle, including the ones he claims he owns and uses, will penetrate "protective clothing worn by police officers" (body armor). In fact, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Whitman">a criminal with a hunting rifle is far more dangerous</a> than one with a semi-automatic AK-47. If Carter were really concerned enough about the danger to police he'd voluntarily turn in his own firearms before they can be stolen and put to criminal use. Again, the claim to be a 'hunter' is only a badly-disguised attempt to portray himself dishonestly as a 'sensible' gun owner instead of the <a href="http://www.camera.org/index.asp?x_context=2&x_outlet=118&x_article=1238">elitist bigot</a> that he really is. (If you're thinking I neither like or respect the man, you're thinking right.)<br /><br />I for one am grateful Jimmy Carter occasionally makes a return to the world's stage. This man is the most reliable indicator of the intelligent side of a position the world has ever seen. You simply have only to determine where Jimmy Carter stands... and then you know unfailingly the <u>opposite</u> side is correct.<br /><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/assault+weapons" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Mexican+cartel" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/guns+in+Mexico" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Jimmy+Carter" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/gun+control" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/assault+weapons+ban" rel="tag"></a>John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-66479183330132486082009-04-27T11:22:00.000-07:002009-04-27T11:31:13.391-07:00Don't The Police Have More Important Things To Do?<a href="http://www.autobloggreen.com/2009/04/13/police-sting-doesnt-stop-homebrew-electric-vehicle-maker-in-cal/#comments">A perfect example of what is wrong with our country.</a><br /><br />Santa Monica has hundreds of burglaries, robberies, dozens of rapes... and yet they have the manpower and money to go after <a href="http://www.electriccustomcars.com/">this poor schlub</a>?<br /><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Lola+EV" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Santa+Monica" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/bureaucracy" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/government+waste" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Paul+Pearson" rel="tag"></a>John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-18990734561793578322009-04-15T23:23:00.001-07:002009-04-16T01:59:48.525-07:00The Seattle Tea Party<center><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/37037663@N00/3446162877/" title="Seattle Tea Party Panorama by John Clifford, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3396/3446162877_41761cf0df.jpg" width="486" height="500" alt="Seattle Tea Party Panorama - (c) 2009 John Clifford" /></a></center><br /><br />I went down to Westlake Center in Seattle this evening to photograph the Seattle Tea Party, and to gauge the mood of the crowd.<br /><br /><center><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/37037663@N00/3446162521/" title="Seattle Tea Party Audience by John Clifford, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3627/3446162521_fb04184a2a.jpg" width="500" height="333" alt="Seattle Tea Party Audience - (c) 2009 John Clifford" /></a></center><br /><br />I arrived just before the event kicked off, and watched the crowd from across the street, taking a few pictures before I decided to get into the audience for some crowd shots:<br /><br /><center><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/37037663@N00/3446162221/" title="Vote 'Em All Out! by John Clifford, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3658/3446162221_a33b6ed37f.jpg" width="500" height="333" alt="Vote 'Em All Out! - (c) 2009 John Clifford" /></a></center><br />The primary organizer and Master of Ceremonies was Keli Carendar, who spontaneously organized the first Tea Party in the country here in Seattle back in February.<br /><br /><center><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/37037663@N00/3446162989/" title="Seattle Tea Party - Keli Carendar by John Clifford, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3592/3446162989_904acfdbd2.jpg" width="333" height="500" alt="Seattle Tea Party/Keli Carendar - (c) 2009 John Clifford" /></a></center><br />Ms. Carendar, dressed as 'Alice in Wonderland', did a great job of firing the crowd up, introducing the different speakers, and even offering a well-sung rendition of "Obama, Won't You Buy Me a Mercedes Benz" based on the Janis Joplin tune. It was pretty funny, and the crowd loved it.<center><br /><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/37037663@N00/3446162941/" title="The Crowd Listens by John Clifford, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3562/3446162941_d92bd358d7.jpg" width="500" height="333" alt="The Crowd Listens - (c) 2009 John Clifford" /></a></center><br /><br />There were perhaps a thousand Tea Party-ers with a wide variety of signs, mostly related to taxes and spending, but there was also a lot of anger about the TARP program, the Stimulus Bill, and the massive increase in the federal budget:<br /><br /><center><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/37037663@N00/3446976692/" title="We The People... by John Clifford, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3332/3446976692_93aa2d4f30.jpg" width="500" height="333" alt="We The People... - (c) 2009 John Clifford" /></a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/37037663@N00/3446162451/" title="Speaking From The Arch by John Clifford, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3634/3446162451_1f675a0337.jpg" width="500" height="333" alt="Speaking From The Arch - (c) 2009 John Clifford" /></a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/37037663@N00/3446162637/" title="No Longer Silent by John Clifford, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3636/3446162637_6e3db96263.jpg" width="500" height="333" alt="No Longer Silent - (c) 2009 John Clifford" /></a></center><br /><br />There wasn't much of a counter-protest, maybe a couple dozen disorganized folks who mostly came down to have some fun."<a href="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3320/3446162337_5b887b24ea.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 333px; height: 500px;" src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3320/3446162337_5b887b24ea.jpg" border="0" alt="Pro-Socialism - (c) 2009 John Clifford" /></a> I talked to a few of them and really felt like the two sides are talking past each other; one teenager/twentysomething couldn't understand why the Tea Party folks were against "fairness" because "after all, that's what Obama is trying to do, ensure fairness. I tried to explain to him that maybe these folks believed that making them pay for other folks' mortgages, or for bailing out companies that took huge yet foreseeable risks was unfair, and that they thought putting a $200k bill on their children was especially unfair... but of course the young man isn't paying taxes because he doesn't make enough and believed that only the "rich" would end up paying for these programs. Another fellow evidently thought the Tea Party-ers were hypocritical in that they "supported socialism when it benefited them." His counter-protest sign illustrated his point, and since he was being very polite and well-mannered I didn't bother to explain the false premise he was making (that government services such as the military or law enforcement are a form of socialism).<a href="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3571/3446976884_5d9f198442.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 333px; height: 500px;" src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3571/3446976884_5d9f198442.jpg" border="0" alt="Don't Ask... - (c) 2009 John Clifford" /></a> You can read his sign and make up your own mind. And then there was this last sign representing the motivations of most of the counter-protesters, who came down to shock the squares and get some laughs. I thought she was cute, so I sure hope that sign belongs to her boyfriend! <br /><br /><br />I especially liked this poignant sign from a capitalist wondering what the heck happened to his country. A witty way of capturing the change that has happened in America over the past quarter century; while the GOP was winning at the polls, the Democrats were winning the hearts and minds of Generations X and Y. The minority view of the 1980s is the conventional wisdom of today. <a href="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3628/3446977042_834ebff39b.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 333px; height: 500px;" src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3628/3446977042_834ebff39b.jpg" border="0" alt="A Great Sign - (c) 2009 John Clifford" /></a><br /><br />Maybe it takes a Jimmy Carter, or a Barack Obama, for people to relearn the lesson of how There's No Such Thing As A Free Lunch every generation, and that someone has to pay for all of these programs. Maybe it's a good thing the Democrats won everything, so that America can realize just exactly how Democrats govern (unapologetic big spenders, as opposed to apologetic big spender Republicans). And maybe the GOP needs some time in the wilderness to think about the butt-kicking they've taken since 2006 and for the lesson of what happens when you don't govern the same way you campaign to sink in.<br /><br />There was a considerable police presence, with a half-dozen mounted police (on horseback), perhaps another dozen bicycle police, and a couple of patrol cars with another half-dozen officers distributed through the square. The crowd was well-behaved, though, and the police mostly talked to each other and enjoyed the afternoon.<br /><br /><center><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/37037663@N00/3446162139/" title="Just In Case by John Clifford, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3611/3446162139_96e2a646ae.jpg" width="500" height="333" alt="Just In Case - (c) 2009 John Clifford" /></a></center><br /><br />The event ended around 7:30, with the last speaker getting the crowd fired up about throwing <u>all</u> of the incumbents out to send a message. I think the only way to solve the problem with our government is to get rid of the concept of career politicians by enforcing term limits on all federal elected offices. If eight years is good enough for the president, then surely twelve years is good enough for a Congressman or Senator. <br /><br /><center><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/37037663@N00/3446977404/" title="The Silent Majority? by John Clifford, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3337/3446977404_3e15dd1be5.jpg" width="500" height="333" alt="The Silent Majority? - (c) 2009 John Clifford" /></a></center><br /><br />It is unconscionable that a person who has never worked in the private sector can become a multi-millionnaire through public office, and this seems to be especially prevalent among Democrats, the prime examples being Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Finally, Ms. Carendar announced that more Tea Parties were scheduled for upcoming holidays, and promising to run them until the 2010 elections. <br /><br />In summary, a surprisingly strong crowd of folks who don't ordinarily come out and protest, reflecting considerable anger at their elected officials. I don't think the GOP understands how much of this anger is pointed their way, either. The true test of the Tea Party movement is its longevity; will these Parties be a flash in the pan, or will they grow over the next two years and culminate in a changing of the guard in Congress and the states? I think the answer lies in whether or not a leader emerges who can effectively speak to this anger and inspire a following, and so far I don't see that person.<br /><br />Note: All photos taken with a <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000J2AB94?ie=UTF8&tag=httpwwwthirty-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B000J2AB94">Sigma SD14 dSlr</a><img src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=httpwwwthirty-20&l=as2&o=1&a=B000J2AB94" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;"/>, and either a <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000JDHHSQ?ie=UTF8&tag=httpwwwthirty-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=B000JDHHSQ">Sigma 18-50/2.8 EX DC Macro lens</a><img src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=httpwwwthirty-20&l=as2&o=1&a=B000JDHHSQ" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;"/>, a <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B001047Z6C?ie=UTF8&tag=httpwwwthirty-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=B001047Z6C">Sigma 50-150/2.8 EX DG lens</a><img src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=httpwwwthirty-20&l=as2&o=1&a=B001047Z6C" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;"/>, or a <a href="http://cgi.ebay.com/Nikon-300%2f5.6-Celestron-Beautiful-Compact-Mirror-lens_W0QQitemZ220393794670QQcmdZViewItem">Celestron 300/5.6 mirror lens</a>.<br /><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/tax+protest" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Seattle+Tea+Party" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Tea+Party" rel="tag"></a><br /><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Keli+Carendar" rel="tag"></a>John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-64293852389948279572009-04-15T09:57:00.000-07:002009-04-15T11:20:26.910-07:00The Nightmare Scenario: Are We Paying For The Rope That Will Be Used To Hang Us?Let's say you were running a country with a huge population but a primitive infrastructure. For historical reasons, your population was not well-educated and your country was not industrialized; manual labor predominated. Your political-economic system provided security for the ruling elite and a docile populace, but the fundamentals of your economy could only change if you obtained money from other countries. More important to you as a leader, you believed your country was not treated with the respect it deserved given its historical accomplishments. How would you address these problems?<br /><br />Let's say you realized that, although your economy was aligned with socialist principles, you were enough of a realist to realize that economic capitalism was the best way to bring prosperity and technical advancement to your country. So, you decide to utilize capitalism by exploiting your greatest resource; your people.<br /><br />Fast forward a dozen years. Your country's factories produce durable goods for the world. Because you don't enforce intellectual property laws, much of what you value from other countries is used without compensation in your country... software, entertainment. You even turn a blind eye to the illegal copying of this, because it brings in hard currency. But all isn't rosy.<br /><br />You realize that you need to not repeat the mistakes of countries like Japan, or England, Germany, or even the Unites States... manufacturing powerhouses who failed to control the natural resources that they depended on to keep their economies afloat. So, you bribe corrupt leaders of resource-rich but poor countries elsewhere in the Third World so you can develop and control their resources. You give guns and money to the Sudanese regardless of their deeds in Darfur, so you can get the oil you need. You do the same things in Nigeria and Angola. You go elsewhere in Africa, sending your people over to oversee the natives in places like South Africa and Zimbabwe. Like a drug pusher, you give poor nations cheap loans so they become beholden to you. You dump consumer goods in their markets, squeeze out the local competition for textiles, and you set up companies for these markets using mostly Chinese labor. In short, like the European powers you practice colonialism, but unlike your antecedents you have no religious or moral sentiments to make lives better for those you exploit, and you have no plans to leave. You don't stop in Africa, either. Iran and Venezuela need a friend who can sell them weapons, and you need oil. It's just business.<br /><br />How do you handle your largest competitor, the Unites States? Well, you buy their debt so they can become beholden to you also. You give weapons technologies to proxies like Iran, Pakistan, and North Korea, so that America has to spend its time trying to do something about proliferation... and each time its efforts fail American prestige suffers another blow. The Islamists leave you alone, because unlike the Americans you really don't care about world opinion, and they know it. Not that you can project power... yet... but you've ensured that countries like Iran understand that it is in their interests to be aligned with you, to sell you oil and buy your technology, while they rail against the West. You don't care if the Islamists want to fight with the Americans. It only weakens both, and that benefits you. You don't care if the North Koreans or the Iranians get the Bomb. They won't use it against you, and it only weakens America.<br /><br />So, here we are in 2009. China holds almost $2 trillion in US debt, in the form of treasury bonds. Foolishly, we have borrowed money from them to buy from them. And, we are counting on them to buy another couple trillion over the next few years. What happens when China calls in that debt? Or, even worse, what happens when China decides on a course of action that we find objectionable, and their response to our objection is to threaten to destroy our economy? Will we fight for Taiwan, for instance, if the cost of doing so makes our current economic woes seem like a bank holiday?<br /><br />I don't think we've woken up to the fact that we are currently losing an economic war with China, and if we don't change course quickly we are going to be destroyed as a country. The evidence is there; all one has to do is to look at the contrast between Detroit and Shanghai, and to realize that the money that used to support America's industrial areas (the Rust Belt) has been sent overseas and has built China's shining cities and manufacturing facilities. It's not China's fault, of course. We gave them the opportunity by deliberately choosing to be non-competitive, and they have capitalized on our stupidity. And we're continuing down this road, further stifling our competitiveness because of shortsighted policy decisions. Americans were naive enough to believe that economic prosperity and political freedom had to go hand-in-hand, but that isn't necessarily true in a modern industrial society. Unlike us, the people who govern China don't have to worry about fractious political battles, and unlike us they have learned from their past policy mistakes. <br /><br />Look ahead a few years. China is preparing a blue water navy, and there's only one reason a country needs a blue water navy: projection of power. China is working on a ballistic missile 'carrier killer' to deal with our blue water navy. China understands the latest GPS and computer technology, because they manufacture it for us, so there's no smart weapon in our arsenal they can't build. And China will have 32 million military-age men for whom there are no Chinese women, so these men will not be able to marry in their own society. All of these things will come to a head at the time we finally run out of money because China can choose when it will stop financing our debt... and then we are broke.<br /><br />That is the nightmare scenario, the game of Risk in the real world: a China that has sewn up its natural resource needs, that has built a powerful military, and that has brought our economy to a halt. What if they go into Siberia? Only we could possibly stop them, and I don't think the American people will accept the risk of a nuclear strike against an American city to do so. The Russians don't have the population or the military to stand against them, even with nukes. Once China gets Siberia and has a few years of rest to rebuild what they lost in the Sino-Siberian War, who will be next?<br /><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/China" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/economic+crisis" rel="tag"></a><br /><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Iran" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/North+Korea" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/economic+war" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/nightmare+scenario" rel="tag"></a>John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-65138871144299996822009-03-24T20:51:00.000-07:002009-03-24T22:12:11.705-07:00The Second Rule of Gun FightingThe First Rule of a Gun Fight is 'Have a gun.' What is the Second Rule?<br /><br />There are four possible outcomes of any gun fight:<br /><blockquote><list><li><b>No one gets shot</b> (showing a gun gets compliance).<br><br>Now, this may be a 'win' and it may not be. If you point a gun at a bad guy and he goes face down on the ground until the police arrive to haul him away, score it a win. If the bad guy makes you comply, e.g., steals your wallet, rapes you, ties you up and throws you in the trunk of his car, you lose... and the scenario dictates how much you lose.</li><br /><br /><li><b>You shoot the bad guy.</b><br><br>He loses. You may or may not win, depending on whether shooting him was the correct thing to do.</li><br /><br /><li><b>The bad guy shoots you.</b><br><br>You lose.</li><br /><br /><li><b>You <u>both</u> get shot.</b><br><br>You <i>still</i> lose, even if the bad guy loses worse.</li></list></blockquote>So, the Second Rule of a Gun Fight is 'Don't get shot!' because winning a gun fight isn't strictly a matter of shooting the bad guy, it's surviving the encounter intact. It seems obvious, but a quick perusal through the 'Lessons Learned' archives of this site alone shows that most gun fights are lost because the good guys fail to faithfully follow the Second Rule.<br /><br />Let's look at <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/breaking-news/story/965735.html">the Miami Burger King shootout</a> that happened today. The bad guy walks in complete with ski mask (thanks for the target identifier, buddy!) and holds up the place. A good guy, complete with concealed carry license, pulls his gun and confronts the bad guy. The bullets start flying, and when it's over the bad guy is dead and the good guy is seriously wounded. Ask yourself, did the good guy really win?<br /><br />Let's see... he won a trip to the emergency room, several hours of emergency surgery, months of painful convalescence, and perhaps some permanent disability... if he survives. Doesn't sound like much of a win to me.<br /><br />I'm not saying good guys should never fight back. Quite the contrary. What I want to emphasize here is to keep the goal in mind. The goal is not to protect Burger King's till. It is to protect your life, the lives of your loved ones, and the lives of innocents... in that order. Don't place one day's sales of a small business above your life and the well-being of a family that depends upon you. <br /><br />Before getting involved in a gun fight, ask yourself <i>is this necessary?</i> As <a href="http://www.thunderranchinc.com/">Clint Smith</a> is fond of saying, life will give you plenty of chances to show your heroism, so don't volunteer unnecessarily. Sometimes, however, there are no good choices. Sometimes you will have to get involved, because the cost of not engaging is too high. If you find yourself in such a situation, then remember the Second Rule of a Gun Fight: Don't Get Shot!<br /><br />Remember also that weapons are merely tools that we use to accomplish a task. Strategy and tactics are really what ensures success with the tool at hand. Have a plan, and develop the skills necessary to carry your plan out to a successful conclusion. In the case of the Miami Burger King shootout, the good guy had the initiative, and he had a gun. But did he have a sound strategy, a plan that would ensure success? No.<br /><br />From reading the news reports, it appears that the good guy pulled his gun and confronted the armed robber. <b>At this point, the good guy has thrown away every advantage he has, and given the advantage to the bad guy!</b> The lesson here: don't <u>confront</u> armed bad guys, <u>shoot</u> them... or don't get involved! If I was in a similar life-threatening situation where deadly force was warranted and felt I had to intervene in order to save my life or the life of others, rather than confront the bad guy I'd <b>get behind cover</b> if at all possible... something that would have a good chance to stop a bullet, like a counter or a booth partition. However, once I made the decision to shoot, I'd pull my gun out and aim it at the bad guy, and then I'd shoot him until I was absolutely positively sure he no longer posed a valid threat. No challenge, no "Drop your weapon!" or "Freeze!" I am <u>not</u> going to give any bad guy a chance to shoot me if I can help it.<br /><br />I understand that sometimes you can't seek cover, because there isn't time. Sometimes all the choices stink. Sometimes you have to resign yourself to the very real possibility that you <u>will</u> get shot, but the alternative of doing nothing and getting shot, raped, or killed is much worse. Your strategy doesn't change. Once you've made the decision that deadly force is warranted, then don't hesitate. Draw and shoot, and keep shooting until there is no longer a threat. Putting the bad guy down, now, is your best chance of minimizing harm to yourself and other innocents. It may be your <u>only</u> chance for survival. At the Burger King today, the first shot from the good guy could have ended it all. Make that first shot on your time, with all deliberate speed ("take your time, fast" as <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0936279095?ie=UTF8&tag=httpwwwthirty-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0936279095">Bill Jordan</a> wrote), and make it count because it may be the only shot you get.<br /><br />He who hesitates is lost. Don't hesitate. Make your decision, and then carry out your plan vigorously. <br /><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Miami+Burger+King" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Miami+Burger+King+shootout" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/armed+self+defense" rel="tag"></a><br /><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/handguns" rel="tag"></a>John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-29922320128200887032009-03-23T15:17:00.000-07:002009-03-23T15:35:05.539-07:00Is The Glass Half-Empty?Over at <a href="http://rightcoast.typepad.com">The Right Coast</a>, Maimon Schwarzschild ponders on <a href="http://rightcoast.typepad.com/rightcoast/2009/03/things-not-to-be-giddy-about-maimon-schwarzschild.html">Things To Be Depressed About</a>, asking who is right, <a href="http://rightcoast.typepad.com/rightcoast/2009/03/things-arent-so-bad-tom-smith.html">optimists</a> or <a href="http://www.victorhanson.com/articles/hanson032209.html">pessimists</a> and <a href="http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/03/023140.php">more pessimists</a>? <em>ht: <a href="http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/74324/">Instapundit</a></em><br /><br />I gotta go with Scott and VDH on this one. It's not even close.<br /><br />You know, the really bad thing about reality is that it has a way of catching up to people who refuse to face it, and then smacking them in the chops until they do. As my dad said, "Life is hard, but it's a lot harder if you're stupid."<br /><br />America as a nation is stupid. We elected a charismatic, attractive, apparently-intelligent person to the President, ignoring the fact that the man had very little experience actually running things and making decisions... and the experience he did have wasn't illustrative of brilliance as a leader or manager (his management of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Annenberg_Challenge">Chicago Annenberg Challenge</a> oversaw the spending of almost $150 million! with <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Annenberg_Challenge#cite_note-Smylie_2003-59">no apparent quantitative results</a> - no improvement in child or school performance). We could have elected a man with tremendous experience, and proven leadership and management abilities, but as I said, America as a nation is stupid.<br /><br />Now we have this resultant mess of the economy, which a strong, confident hand on the wheel could have prevented. We have trillion-dollar deficits stretching out as far as the eye can see. We have a Congress that is too lazy to actually read legislation before passing it... and then too stupidly arrogant to realize that passing unconstitutional bills of attainder are no substitute for due diligence. We have <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1159627/To-special-friend-Gordon-25-DVDs-Obama-gives-Brown-set-classic-movies-Lets-hope-likes-Wizard-Oz.html">insulted</a> our strongest allies, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/poland/4962736/Poland-leader-demands-that-the-US-fulfil-its-missile-shield-obligations.html">left important friends who trusted us at our word hanging by themselves</a>, and <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/Nowruz/">kowtowed to our sworn enemies</a>, earning not peace but <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/5021796/Iran-responds-to-Barack-Obamas-video-appeal-with-nuclear-pledge.html">a dangerous lack of respect</a> that will foment more trouble around the world. But give the Obama Administration credit for one thing: we did all of this in 60 days! Yep... we made history alright, and let's pray that it's the history we wanted instead of the second coming of Jimmy Carter, or worse.<br /><br />We needed the best and brightest, but instead we elected the glib and facile, the popular kids in high school who got all the dates but ended up working where they could use their connections rather than innate ability to go farther... and we are going to pay for it.<br /><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/economy" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Victor+David+Hansen" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Scott+Johnson" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Powerline" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Instapundit" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/crisis" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/depression" rel="tag"></a>John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-18172787222598755962009-03-17T00:40:00.001-07:002009-03-17T00:55:42.109-07:00The Difference Between Liberals and Conservatives: It's Not What You Think...So, I've been playing with watching streaming video over the Internet on my TV, through my XBox, and found a program called <a href="http://www.themediamall.com/playon">PlayOn</a>. Playon lets you set up a PC to receive video streams from a variety of sources, including Amazon Video-On-Demand, Netflix, and YouTube. It's pretty easy to install, costs $35, and mostly works well (there are a few glitches but the PlayOn folks release updates often and the software has improved even in the past month or so that I've been using it). <br /><br />One of the YouTube channels I've subscribed to has been <a href="http://www.youtube.com/user/TEDtalksDirector">TEDtalksDirector</a>, the video stream for the various TED presentations available. <a href="http://www.ted.com/">TED</a>, which stands for 'Technology, Entertainment, Design' is a yearly conference series that brings together movers and shakers from a variety of different areas including high tech, education, politics, business, and entertainment. The conferences offer a multitude of presentations on a variety of subjects, from how the world began to the use of rock chords in progressive jazz... in other words, a very eclectic mix. Although some of the presentations are controversial, and others are just fluff, the occasional nugget of gold can be found.<br /><br />I'm embedding a TED Talk entitled "The Real Difference Between Liberals and Conservatives" by Jonathan Haidt. I just watched this, and at the beginning I was thinking <em>yet another biased presentation</em>, yet by the end my opinion switched to thinking that this was perhaps the best TED Talk I've seen yet.<br /><br />Here it is. Please watch it and then feel free to leave a comment on what you thought.<br /><br /><object width="480" height="295"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/vs41JrnGaxc&hl=en&fs=1&rel=0"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/vs41JrnGaxc&hl=en&fs=1&rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="295"></embed></object><br /><br />As for me, it made me think about the various discussions I've had with my liberal friends... and the political combat that seems to be growing even harsher with every passing year regardless of who wins the White House or Congress.<br /><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/TED" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/TED+talks" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/difference+between+liberals+and+conservatives" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/PlayOn" rel="tag"></a>John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-13501649631037927682009-02-10T20:21:00.000-08:002009-02-10T21:06:13.077-08:00The Economy Will Remain Broken Until Washington Is Fixed<a href="http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/69399/">Glenn Reynolds</a>, over at Instapundit, links to a <a href="http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0209/Obama_allies_attack_GOP_leadership.html">Politico article</a> on how the Democrat activist organizations are starting to attack the Republican Congressional leadership in an effort to turn around public perception on the Stimulus Bill. Fine... that's politics after all, but I don't understand Reynolds' comment that he's "<a href="http://www.pajamasmedia.com/instapundit-archive/archives/033235.php">tired of it</a>." Tired of what? The GOP leadership? Or, attacking the GOP leadership? I think many Americans were hoping that Hope and Change meant hoping for true bipartisanship, for putting country above party, and for changing the way things were done... but despite all the hope nothing has changed. Certainly the <a href="http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/pelosi-very-happy-with-stimulus-vote-2009-01-29.html">Democrats haven't changed</a>.<br /><br />The Democrats own the Stimulus Bill. Speaker Pelosi and the House Democrat leadership wrote the bill, and Senator Harry Reid and his fellow Democrat senators put together the Senate version. Democrats will control the conference committee that ends up deciding what the final outcome will be. As Obama, Pelosi, Reid, MoveOn, DailyKos, etc., are so fond of reminding us, they won. They are going to use their control of the Legislative and Executive branches of the government to ram this spending colossus through and nothing is going to stop them... not <a href="http://open.salon.com/content.php?cid=100869">public opposition</a>, not the <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/feb/04/cbo-obama-stimulus-harmful-over-long-haul/">CBO report that shows doing nothing is a better strategy</a>, and certainly not the greatly outnumbered Republicans. Chances are the eventual bill won't even be made public until after Obama signs it.<br /><br />It wouldn't be such a big deal if we were just talking about the fate of one or the other political parties, which after all are really just associations of like-minded folks banding together to move things in the direction they want. Who gives a fig? However, the Stimulus Bill is more than just partisan politics. We're talking somewhere north of $800 billion dollars here. Do you realize just how much money that is?<br /><br />Here's some comparisons that will help you wrap your mind around the enormity of the $800+ billion we're going to print and spend, and obligate ourselves: <ul><li>We could select 16,000 random folks (yes, 16,000!) in each of the 50 states, and give them a million dollars<br /><li>We could give 10% of the population of New York City a million dollars each<br /><li>We could give every man, woman, and child in the country a new computer, a new iPhone, a new digital camera, and a 42" LCD HD TV... and still have enough money to pay their cable bill for a year<br /><li>We could give every American family a three-month paid vacation, at the average salary<br /></li></ul><br />Does anyone really believe that the way to get out of debt is to indebt oneself even more? Of course not. The first thing a smart person does when facing a shortfall is to cut spending, not raise it. After all, if spending like a drunken sailor would get us out of our difficulties, we would never be here in the first place.<br /><br />The <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9ebea1b8-f794-11dd-81f7-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1">Financial Times had a great article</a> on the cause of our current economic woes, and the possible solutions. What I don't understand is, if Tim Geithner is the financial genius who is uniquely qualified to fix the problem, then why didn't he cover these points in today's press conference... you know, the one that drove the Dow down several hundred points, because <a href="http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/10/geithner-banks-loans-opinions-columnists_0210_susan_lee.html">investors realize the Obama Administration doesn't have a clue</a> about how to proceed and is flailing desperately. What was their solution? Let the bad banks fail, and stop throwing good money after bad. Yes, bank investors will lose money. That's what happens when you invest in a business that makes bad decisions.<br /><br />All of the political posturing we've seen over the last week is just so much kabuki theater. The truth is really rather simple: the Dems want Republican support so that everyone owns this stinker of a bill... and no single party can be held responsible.<br /><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Glenn+Reynolds" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Instapundit" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Stimulus+Bill" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Tim+Geithner" rel="tag"></a>John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7960766.post-56137142560994326902009-02-08T22:49:00.000-08:002009-02-09T00:03:29.995-08:00What I Did This Weekend...<center><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/ghgu-Hi84S0&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/ghgu-Hi84S0&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object></center><br /><br />I went to the <a href="http://startupweekend.com/seattle-2-starting-shortly/">Seattle Startup Weekend 2</a> held at <a href="http://maps.google.com/?q=Google Seattle@47.649041,-122.350509&hl=en">Google's Seattle office</a> over in Fremont to pitch an idea... and got 27 votes and a dozen folks to help me make it happen. After two days of hard work, we actually have a <a href="http://www.scrampede.com">catchy domain name and a prototype website</a>.<br /><br />What's the idea? Bringing consumers and service providers together, using geolocating to improve efficiencies by utilizing available bandwidth. In layman's terms, we allow service providers to take advantage of opportunities near their current location while they're otherwise unoccupied. Think of a plumber, for instance, who has to travel for a half-hour to do a two-hour job, then has a couple of hours until his next appointment. If a plumbing service call opportunity a mile or two away from his current location comes to his attention, he can choose to take that service call without additional travel time. A consumer's example would be, say, a need to haul a load of yard debris from last weekend's cleanup to the dump... but it would take several pickup truckloads, the dump's ten miles away, and the minimum dump fee is $15. Why not post a job for someone to come and haul your stuff away, for a maximum fee of $25? Some enterprising landscaper who is working in the neighborhood already has half a dump-truck load... and can spend 30 minutes picking up another four trash piles (you and others in the vicinity), and make a quick $100. You save money and time, and the landscaper collects an extra $100 for the same actual overhead. Win-win.<br /><br />It was a lot of fun, with some frustration at the intermittent Internet service and blowing circuit breakers. We ended up spending almost all of Sunday at <a href="http://www.yelp.com/biz/peets-coffee-and-tea-seattle-2">Peet's Coffee</a> and <a href="http://www.mcmenamins.com/index.php?loc=14">Dad Watson's</a> (both offering free Wi-Fi to customers), returning to Google at the end of the day <a href="http://www.techflash.com/venture/Profiles_of_each_of_the_projects_at_Seattle_Startup_Weekend_39290402.html">to report on our group</a>, watch what others had done and show off our own work.<br /><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Seattle+Startup+Weekend+2" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Seattle+Startup+Weekend" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/scrampede" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Startup+Weekend" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Google+Seattle" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Fremont+Seattle" rel="tag"></a><a href="http://technorati.com/tag/Seattle+tech+sector" rel="tag"></a>John Cliffordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14847795333613154546noreply@blogger.com0